Us Politics · resolved market
Will turnout be between 1000000 and 1100000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4d5c19b973ace16d46f77c36b0bdf1fcba43a3101aebb04dad8f57a25d37499
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 57c | 25,138$14,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,787.7 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked No | 40c | 20,731$8,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,246.36 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 42c | 14,064$5,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,945.59 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 45c | 6,000$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,294.36 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 37c | 4,724$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.8 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 72c | 4,238$3,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.79 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 25c | 3,584$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.02 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad92…88e2backed No | 18c | 3,433$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 64c | 2,355$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.01 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e879backed No | 15c | 2,068$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…3073backed No | 52c | 1,995$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f8…6f3bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,990$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…faadbacked No | 13c | 1,488$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 36c | 1,458$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.2 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 52c | 1,110$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.75 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc918…a005backed No | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546c…9b5cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 54c | 999.71$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fe6cbacked Yes | 48c | 995$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04f…2583backed No | 52c | 980$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…9027backed Yes | 77c | 718.62$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 70c | 704.95$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.95 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa018…1d75backed Yes | 48c | 695$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 31c | 526.41$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.42 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5b…8c08backed No | 52c | 450$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff46…4e8abacked No | 17c | 425$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 6c | 374.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea2…823cbacked No | 52c | 340$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 4c | 336.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 305.82$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.34 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…12dfbacked Yes | 46c | 305.23$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed Yes | 76c | 292.94$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 8c | 270.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…273fbacked Yes | 46c | 268.87$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 39c | 245$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 45c | 236$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.8 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8990…79adbacked Yes | 48c | 235$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…00e0backed Yes | 49c | 235$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 41c | 222.72$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…11f8backed No | 52c | 210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…22b3backed No | 52c | 210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf72…aea6backed No | 52c | 210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 46c | 200.95$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.83 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 12c | 190.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 78c | 186.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed Yes | 44c | 164$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…0797backed Yes | 49c | 158.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Yes | 46c | 138.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 54c | 106$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 54c | 105.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 35c | 85.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 30c | 70.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69a9…b006backed Yes | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5df…46dcbacked Yes | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…1131backed Yes | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…0a56backed Yes | 46c | 58.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed No | 54c | 56.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…01d3backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4d…2173backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 31.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a8…d796backed Yes | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 49c | 22.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc90…a076backed No | 57c | 21.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf0…d55dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…5e81backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb429…bd15backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…8321backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout be between 1000000 and 1100000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?this page
- Will turnout be between 1100000 and 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
- Will turnout be between 900000 and 1000000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
- Will turnout be greater than 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
- Will turnout be less than 900000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.