Us Politics · resolved market
Will turnout be between 900000 and 1000000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x793d899eb6fe3bac8e41211c08d30d53d562a6ca68ef51fde9416d2db9fe23c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x890e…bd55backed Yes | 1c | 2,084$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 1,457$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…bd26backed Yes | 1c | 1,354$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 30c | 999.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x630f…f727backed Yes | 2c | 840.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 27c | 839.5$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.87 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 525.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 70c | 501.09$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.3 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 10c | 425$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 69c | 407.81$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.04 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 25c | 277.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 73c | 270.52$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 16c | 150.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa28f…89fdbacked Yes | 25c | 120.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 35c | 119.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout be between 900000 and 1000000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?this page
- Will turnout be between 1000000 and 1100000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?Yes won
- Will turnout be between 1100000 and 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
- Will turnout be greater than 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
- Will turnout be less than 900000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.