Us Politics · resolved market
Will turnout be between 1100000 and 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4026436798f7def06846c75e36257a0f7b938a2ff859b207a5f2dac536335c42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 52c | 25,322$13,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,040.13 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 33c | 17,925$5,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,864.64 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 41c | 16,254$6,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,593.02 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 35c | 6,468$2,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,282.31 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 11c | 4,950$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.94 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 21c | 3,057$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.53 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 10c | 2,871$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.71 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad92…88e2backed Yes | 22c | 2,750$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 23c | 2,518$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.5 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,881$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…8b32backed Yes | 23c | 1,779$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 78c | 1,608$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.24 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 6c | 801.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 45c | 750$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 5c | 666.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 19c | 591.02$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.62 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked No | 58c | 461.67$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 449.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc8…bd33backed Yes | 4c | 337$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00c…0b10backed Yes | 4c | 291$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 19c | 225.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 14c | 209.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…e367backed Yes | 14c | 178.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…a4d5backed Yes | 10c | 166$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a9…54a7backed Yes | 10c | 161$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…0f85backed No | 45c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 14c | 124.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4d…2173backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…5a48backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout be between 1100000 and 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?this page
- Will turnout be between 1000000 and 1100000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?Yes won
- Will turnout be between 900000 and 1000000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
- Will turnout be greater than 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
- Will turnout be less than 900000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.