TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,280,350
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$959,012

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,280,350 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc023…ccf8backed Yes9c87,044$8,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,020.743619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes1c69,919$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.929948.5%48 W · 51 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad9…91bdbacked Yes6c60,832$3,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,388.661711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes9c55,513$4,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,902.227817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes5c39,529$1,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.894425%11 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b94…1cc5backed Yes3c36,239$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.7790%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9622…01efbacked Yes13c31,242$4,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,114.892748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes14c30,688$4,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,363.917018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6884…22f4backed Yes16c24,808$4,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,092.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa56…f232backed Yes15c21,364$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,200757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes12c19,489$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.987014.3%10 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-45%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes5c17,839$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.548630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes1c16,567$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.376023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa925…4a4abacked Yes14c16,479$2,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,31130%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes6c15,530$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.4642818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d1…0ed4backed Yes13c13,700$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf515…ff8cbacked Yes5c13,123$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x042d…cb53backed Yes8c12,727$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.651612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-81.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes13c12,663$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.727538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes17c12,635$2,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,113.4116743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70ef…63b4backed Yes8c12,352$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0304042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0bb…ea96backed Yes5c10,362$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1453…a680backed Yes9c10,131$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.983043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked Yes12c9,450$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.715042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2d0…cf13backed Yes2c8,935$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes12c7,823$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.966440.6%26 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…3b43backed Yes11c7,777$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.58520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c5…923dbacked Yes3c7,361$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.061729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6627…898bbacked Yes14c7,131$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes1c7,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.520823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ece…6244backed Yes8c6,278$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.75147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-87.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes0c6,112$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…d383backed Yes10c5,855$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.2230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes10c5,715$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.4427233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes13c5,582$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.992263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes4c5,265$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.7712245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes0c5,200$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.83622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes8c5,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.285248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes14c4,940$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.612744.9%57 W · 70 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+91.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes13c4,894$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6459642.7%41 W · 55 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed Yes8c4,135$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.126121.3%13 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa5…c7bebacked Yes12c4,065$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.24862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb984…2a41backed Yes4c3,900$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.37429.7%22 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x63a6…f308backed Yes10c3,881$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+90.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes5c3,808$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.74147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-90.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes8c3,686$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.4710426%27 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+101.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1bd…23fabacked Yes7c3,609$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.1880%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes7c3,523$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.433337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes10c3,436$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.614835.4%17 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5d…f397backed Yes17c3,341$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.132035%7 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec65…8d16backed Yes16c3,270$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e2…7882backed Yes18c3,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.171250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019a…7df0backed Yes13c2,933$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.831323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes9c2,900$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.186229%18 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c2,861$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.882078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a1…7cb1backed Yes11c2,775$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3101040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+13.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb06…250abacked Yes9c2,737$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-86.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes12c2,492$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.4812038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes13c2,384$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004231%13 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes13c2,299$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002025%5 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+467.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f51…e179backed Yes12c2,264$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2642910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes10c2,148$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb66a…c1ebbacked Yes6c2,100$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9c7…aafbbacked Yes7c2,058$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.51250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7763…815ebacked Yes5c2,054$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-64.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes14c2,001$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.772828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes13c2,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25015626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes7c1,889$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1375633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b60…ddcabacked Yes12c1,864$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes4c1,786$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9723420.9%49 W · 185 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes11c1,725$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.6840939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes7c1,718$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3411136.9%41 W · 70 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe391…8b9ebacked Yes17c1,700$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.4137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-66.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed Yes4c1,663$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.573116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes6c1,600$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5117931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes11c1,594$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.142035%7 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-54.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes13c1,543$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.978739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f2…4a11backed Yes13c1,520$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.15425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes16c1,469$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.39757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x506c…4d49backed Yes11c1,465$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.432548%12 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f2…1131backed Yes4c1,429$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes14c1,406$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa020…d807backed Yes9c1,402$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1324119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes4c1,377$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.075028%14 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-49.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f87…07b9backed Yes4c1,360$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.912010%2 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-85.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e38…1b55backed Yes11c1,350$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.921435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6c…bb08backed Yes13c1,330$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1e…81a4backed Yes12c1,299$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.96714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes10c1,294$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4713629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x71d7…a106backed Yes8c1,290$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.55825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09d1…28cbbacked Yes4c1,261$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x616b…4070backed Yes5c1,211$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.21338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+36.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8664…9500backed Yes5c1,205$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x712a…76b1backed Yes10c1,186$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.48120%0 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x42c0…7e34backed Yes10c1,161$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11960%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x909f…9af9backed Yes12c1,150$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.67911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-80.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes8c1,100$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.83119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes13c1,100$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.19217.4%16 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77ea…fdc7backed Yes8c1,086$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1640%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd9e…3723backed Yes13c1,085$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.