World Politics · resolved market
Will STAČILO! get between 8% and 11% of the vote in the Czech election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4522a7c047802ca6e8f34ec7aa4d72e780c400f56a4f4e9017dffce550674e38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 22c | 1,532$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.32 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3,440.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 30c | 1,385$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.82 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 68c | 817.61$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.58 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 20c | 461.43$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.85 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85c…b783backed Yes | 21c | 449.04$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.05 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 33c | 448.36$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.4 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked No | 71c | 295.89$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…15f9backed Yes | 35c | 286.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b9…47cebacked No | 72c | 236.25$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 28c | 222.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked Yes | 21c | 202.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbd…edd9backed Yes | 29c | 179.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 79c | 177.42$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…e1d1backed Yes | 24c | 108.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 26c | 92.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 75.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 23c | 71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 65.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2de…9fb3backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…d4b9backed No | 67c | 63.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will STAČILO! get between 8% and 11% of the vote in the Czech election?this page
- Will STAČILO! get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will STAČILO! get between 5% and 8% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will STAČILO! get less than 5% of the vote in the Czech election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.