World Politics · resolved market
Will STAČILO! get less than 5% of the vote in the Czech election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7d9620a13637f04a948e197fbf3dda58f042f4f63d9eaa622b0596a41c2975a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 19c | 10,334$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,352.17 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 79c | 7,000$5,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,530 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 24c | 1,875$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.88 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 16c | 1,850$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.5 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,463$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.25 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b9…47cebacked Yes | 24c | 1,330$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.43 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Yes | 25c | 1,202$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 20c | 620$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…44efbacked No | 13c | 519.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 519.08$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.74 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…f605backed No | 79c | 459.39$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.22 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -53%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 20c | 410.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.14 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 25c | 400$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc891…1917backed Yes | 15c | 333$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.05 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked No | 80c | 300$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.58 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 80c | 280.29$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.53 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 75c | 278.98$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.45 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 80c | 259.24$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.1 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 13c | 258.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 77c | 203.22$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.18 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 74c | 199.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…e826backed No | 78c | 160$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 51c | 156.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…f6c4backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 111.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 37c | 77.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 61.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Yes | 24c | 61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…2725backed Yes | 25c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will STAČILO! get less than 5% of the vote in the Czech election?this page
- Will STAČILO! get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will STAČILO! get between 5% and 8% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will STAČILO! get between 8% and 11% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.