World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberals win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65a59d7d3b8149c281554e2b1c5bba9c7763bbad0b990181c409008f5b009ed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $374,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $404,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $374,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 17c | 58,472$9,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,758.98 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 42c | 22,930$9,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,199.34 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 15c | 16,075$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480.22 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 19c | 7,313$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.12 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 3c | 7,143$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.22 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 58c | 6,356$3,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,715.83 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 22c | 6,197$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.37 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 80c | 5,242$4,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.83 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71be…488dbacked Yes | 16c | 4,764$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,977.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…04f4backed Yes | 74c | 3,916$2,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.35 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…8d89backed Yes | 17c | 3,910$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,250.08 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f84…560fbacked Yes | 45c | 3,760$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked Yes | 24c | 3,591$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,722.41 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…f867backed Yes | 53c | 3,123$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.53 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6b…7be7backed Yes | 77c | 2,885$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.81 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 2,870$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,477.1 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 31c | 2,744$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.96 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 44c | 2,526$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.69 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 14c | 2,500$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,139.1 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 21c | 2,322$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.62 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…1c53backed Yes | 77c | 2,158$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 15c | 2,021$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.45 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 73c | 2,000$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…0298backed Yes | 17c | 1,751$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 1,561$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 15c | 1,551$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.31 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 78c | 1,481$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.46 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…e93bbacked Yes | 69c | 1,418$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 1,362$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.86 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 61c | 1,276$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.58 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed Yes | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.76 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed Yes | 65c | 1,240$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 76c | 1,200$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.6 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…6374backed No | 14c | 1,181$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 77c | 1,054$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.02 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 1,012$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.85 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…e0f7backed Yes | 80c | 1,005$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 14c | 910.71$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.85 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…b172backed Yes | 18c | 856.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 3c | 830.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 80c | 778.37$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.67 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Yes | 70c | 654.42$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.85 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 9c | 624.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.12 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab5…ba4abacked Yes | 73c | 601.28$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…bfacbacked Yes | 80c | 554.11$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 553.77$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.74 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 59c | 551.36$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.14 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 10c | 524.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.36 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…af6ebacked Yes | 16c | 524.01$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 15c | 486.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.22 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee56…bba5backed Yes | 45c | 484.8$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 10c | 477.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.71 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…f499backed Yes | 79c | 458.56$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…6c33backed Yes | 14c | 454.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.2 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed Yes | 75c | 450$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 75c | 431.46$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.97 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x960c…e052backed Yes | 57c | 417.86$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4a…621bbacked Yes | 51c | 391.19$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.62 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 78c | 350$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 18c | 350$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.98 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 71c | 343.36$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 10c | 329.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 17c | 304.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.2 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…948ebacked Yes | 42c | 302.59$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…8814backed Yes | 42c | 300$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 31c | 300$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.65 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x447a…7623backed Yes | 9c | 293.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…2576backed Yes | 38c | 283.57$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.69 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f79…7342backed Yes | 18c | 279.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 50c | 278.26$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.26 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 17c | 271.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.55 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 63c | 267.92$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.15 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 261$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.11 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 42c | 248.75$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.54 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…2695backed Yes | 62c | 248.02$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…8cd8backed No | 14c | 231.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 15c | 211$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.35 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…746bbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…8a10backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.99 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 20c | 172.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.04 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 28c | 171.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 16c | 169.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.93 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…c9e6backed Yes | 30c | 164.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 14c | 150$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…9d5cbacked Yes | 14c | 124.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.02 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 79c | 122.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 11c | 121.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.63 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 17c | 120.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.88 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…cbe6backed Yes | 59c | 119.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79bc…460dbacked Yes | 18c | 111.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…7b14backed Yes | 30c | 106.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 69c | 106.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 42c | 101.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x246a…cd6dbacked Yes | 15c | 93.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +454.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 13c | 92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberals win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will the Liberals win between 100-119 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win between 120-139 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win between 140-149 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win between 150-159 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win between 170-179 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win between 180-189 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win between 190-210 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win less than 100 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win more than 210 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.