World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberals win between 150-159 seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45778949658f964a3d6022590dd05c112268002914abe59d12f9fe8f587425ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 12c | 54,484$6,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,488.33 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…8d89backed Yes | 15c | 5,178$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 12c | 4,404$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.32 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 11c | 2,239$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.83 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,044$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aab…0790backed Yes | 3c | 2,020$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,526$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…b172backed Yes | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 9c | 1,200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 1,077$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.49 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b28…02b7backed Yes | 2c | 1,001$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…6c33backed Yes | 11c | 926.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20df…7a40backed Yes | 12c | 855.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 4c | 835.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb859…5570backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab1d…184dbacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 807.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 772.05$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…2695backed Yes | 3c | 733.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 550$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 11c | 456.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 12c | 448$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf008…f798backed Yes | 14c | 333.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f79…7342backed Yes | 17c | 301.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes | 9c | 300.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa773…3ee3backed Yes | 7c | 268$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 229.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79bc…460dbacked Yes | 9c | 217.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…3dcabacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…04f4backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…746bbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 12c | 182.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44be…5107backed Yes | 10c | 155.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae9…0710backed Yes | 13c | 137.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f09…8a8abacked Yes | 12c | 127.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…2576backed Yes | 44c | 123.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6802…3f97backed Yes | 10c | 116.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…8a10backed Yes | 11c | 109.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dab…b94ebacked Yes | 20c | 100.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad3…93c8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 14c | 86.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 51c | 39.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc02f…cd24backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed No | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberals win between 150-159 seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will the Liberals win between 100-119 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win between 120-139 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win between 140-149 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will the Liberals win between 170-179 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win between 180-189 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win between 190-210 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win less than 100 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberals win more than 210 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.