TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Red Sox vs. Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Red Soxof Red Sox, Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,088,473
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,088,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,088,473 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 432 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Orioles36c770,446$277,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277,297.4938043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Red Sox64c534,012$341,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192,244.31,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Red Sox64c141,889$90,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,079.9935952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Red Sox64c61,748$39,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,241.041,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Red Sox64c50,000$32,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,00048254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Orioles34c28,002$9,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,437.1143247.2%204 W · 228 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Orioles36c27,011$9,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,724.0460249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Orioles36c22,000$7,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,92011150.5%56 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Red Sox66c19,873$13,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,756.7538751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Red Sox64c16,808$10,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,999.951,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Orioles36c15,237$5,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,516.6133845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Orioles36c13,889$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00019649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Orioles33c11,402$3,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,812.3421747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Orioles37c10,325$3,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,833.6654345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x519f…2af7backed Red Sox65c9,380$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,279.983455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Orioles35c8,565$3,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,039.5543949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Red Sox64c7,805$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,805.428646.5%133 W · 153 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Red Sox64c6,924$4,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,492.6426355.5%146 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Red Sox64c6,161$3,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,245.3163152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Red Sox57c5,216$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,266.2954941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2745…17b3backed Orioles35c5,002$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.691741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Red Sox66c4,575$3,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.5233554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Red Sox69c4,398$3,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.366,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Red Sox64c4,388$2,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.1124253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Red Sox64c4,030$2,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.081,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd500…eb4fbacked Red Sox65c3,755$2,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.251163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Red Sox64c3,736$2,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.742,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Red Sox75c3,100$2,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.456845.6%31 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Red Sox66c3,037$2,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.042,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…7be6backed Red Sox79c2,600$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5417153.5%38 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc623…9afdbacked Red Sox59c2,542$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.3713553.3%72 W · 63 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Red Sox64c2,500$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90056451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Orioles36c2,165$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.371,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Orioles36c1,886$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67939041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Orioles41c1,585$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6503855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Red Sox54c1,463$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.0628447.5%135 W · 149 L-20.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Red Sox69c1,400$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.113359.4%79 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Orioles37c1,351$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50028042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Red Sox64c1,230$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.873352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Orioles28c1,157$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32227733.6%93 W · 184 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Orioles36c1,117$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.237651.3%39 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Orioles36c1,111$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40065248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ba9…bfaebacked Orioles37c1,107$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.623060%138 W · 92 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Orioles35c1,101$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.3450843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Orioles44c1,076$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.7615033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb01…3381backed Orioles37c1,043$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Orioles27c1,000$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26517243%74 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c3c…5c56backed Red Sox65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3502934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f23…babebacked Orioles37c957$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.09955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b9f…ee40backed Red Sox63c954$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.98837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Red Sox65c952$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.268769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ec0…08ecbacked Red Sox63c946$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1362…89e4backed Orioles37c943$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.91683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick44cpaid+84%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3462…d3d2backed Red Sox65c934.45$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.064254.8%23 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Red Sox65c903.45$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.2134550.7%175 W · 170 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Orioles35c899.99$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31583248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Orioles36c833$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.881,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Orioles36c832.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8857744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf75…ee4fbacked Red Sox72c802.29$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.69666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f5…fe12backed Red Sox63c796.98$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.591735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e12…7348backed Red Sox65c769.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.2338455.7%214 W · 170 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ad…208ebacked Orioles35c761.29$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.4521740.1%87 W · 130 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Orioles35c749.99$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.516349.1%80 W · 83 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Orioles35c746.96$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.4424547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Orioles53c742.72$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.443946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Red Sox62c739.03$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.474,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Red Sox63c625$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.258356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Orioles44c588.67$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.596,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Orioles36c555.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf19…ca28backed Orioles45c550$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.52352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Orioles38c536.5$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.8751347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Orioles35c518.98$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.6444443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Red Sox69c501.57$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Red Sox63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18530151.5%155 W · 146 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Orioles34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17024040.8%98 W · 142 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Orioles39c467$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.6817946.4%83 W · 96 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Red Sox64c409$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.191,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Red Sox65c408.89$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.1170946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Red Sox60c400$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16234051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6998…9ff2backed Red Sox62c400$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Orioles36c399.99$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.991,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Red Sox57c386.86$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.8921246.2%98 W · 114 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Red Sox63c380.95$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.959947.5%47 W · 52 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9375…1dbdbacked Red Sox65c373.85$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.8511257.1%64 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Orioles35c350$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.51,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Orioles37c333.55$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.346631.1%145 W · 321 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Red Sox62c323.88$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0751151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Red Sox61c319.99$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.81,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Red Sox65c310$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.591749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Red Sox65c303.06$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0721146.4%98 W · 113 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Red Sox66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.032,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Orioles36c302.61$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.863,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Orioles45c300.41$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7112339%48 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7836…6bc4backed Orioles33c299.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011331.9%36 W · 77 L-11.1wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc88f…987abacked Orioles36c294.98$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.191681.3%13 W · 3 L+5.8wins+0.36per pick45cpaid+85.5%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Orioles10c290.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.19,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadc4…1ce3backed Red Sox44c288.65$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.7718446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x123a…e801backed Red Sox59c280$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Red Sox64c268.75$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.7599951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Red Sox64c261.46$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.131,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.