NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Lightning
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0752835bfc07d7ffa288f4979575abe76ea031a2942e1c8024ab0fafa128f6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Islanders, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Islanders | 40c | 4,099$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.62 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…49aabacked Lightning | 5c | 2,131$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Lightning | 55c | 1,974$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.58 | 323 | 31.3%101 W · 222 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Islanders | 17c | 1,789$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.76 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Lightning | 62c | 1,605$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 279 | 58.8%164 W · 115 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Lightning | 64c | 1,423$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.01 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Islanders | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Lightning | 64c | 884.54$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.11 | 724 | 48.3%350 W · 374 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Lightning | 63c | 817.53$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.74 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Lightning | 60c | 711.05$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.63 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Lightning | 60c | 625$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Islanders | 38c | 522.97$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.24 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Lightning | 60c | 504.99$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.91 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Islanders | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning | 59c | 452.74$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.72 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Islanders | 50c | 413.02$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.51 | 417 | 57.3%239 W · 178 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Islanders | 37c | 412.3$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.75 | 298 | 47%140 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Islanders | 39c | 387.17$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.58 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…9a77backed Lightning | 62c | 210$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.58 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2235…d67fbacked Lightning | 62c | 209.68$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Lightning | 62c | 200.13$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.08 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Lightning | 59c | 181.42$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 493 | 51.3%253 W · 240 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Islanders | 46c | 167.43$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 340 | 32.4%110 W · 230 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc93…4249backed Lightning | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lightning | 62c | 161.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Lightning | 64c | 157.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Lightning | 61c | 149.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Lightning | 56c | 145.89$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb861…9a99backed Islanders | 40c | 111.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Islanders | 36c | 105.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Lightning | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 731 | 57.5%420 W · 311 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ec…2271backed Lightning | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Islanders | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Islanders | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 500 | 49.4%247 W · 253 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Lightning | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Islanders | 38c | 99.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Islanders | 38c | 99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Lightning | 61c | 81.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c3…16adbacked Lightning | 41c | 79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…b387backed Islanders | 40c | 77.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…d18cbacked Lightning | 63c | 67.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Lightning | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 459 | 54.2%249 W · 210 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…4b61backed Islanders | 39c | 42.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…6e57backed Lightning | 62c | 41.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…f05fbacked Islanders | 40c | 40.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…304fbacked Lightning | 61c | 36.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…7771backed Lightning | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489e…74b3backed Islanders | 39c | 35.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Islanders | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Islanders | 39c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Lightning | 62c | 33.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0c…e39ebacked Islanders | 38c | 33.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 64c | 31.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…f406backed Lightning | 62c | 30.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…6a22backed Lightning | 62c | 30.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…f3fbbacked Lightning | 61c | 30.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x244e…25d8backed Islanders | 38c | 30.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Lightning | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…d7fdbacked Lightning | 62c | 26.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x029d…19bdbacked Islanders | 39c | 26.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Islanders | 39c | 26.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,079 | 54.3%586 W · 493 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Islanders | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 397 | 57.2%227 W · 170 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a7…b9d2backed Lightning | 60c | 25.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…f4eebacked Lightning | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…0f98backed Lightning | 59c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0f…bdfcbacked Lightning | 61c | 19.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69d5…0e54backed Lightning | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…9d5cbacked Islanders | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.