Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96112c3ac47d7b6da013526775d5a56d4ed341054359ba8bde6e4e65a556a0af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad82…1075backed No | 9c | 9,269$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…e76abacked No | 1c | 7,008$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 4c | 3,851$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.79 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 7c | 3,456$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.92 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 14c | 3,350$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.81 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 7c | 3,040$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.83 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 15c | 2,258$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.26 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7df…4321backed No | 17c | 2,138$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 14c | 2,001$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.25 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,820$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.04 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10cb…8f74backed No | 8c | 1,316$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd0…f21dbacked No | 5c | 1,132$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…d324backed No | 19c | 1,078$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 10c | 1,061$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25a7…63d1backed No | 13c | 1,030$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 10c | 970.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…4491backed No | 11c | 939.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 57c | 855.26$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.49 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…9d60backed No | 12c | 844.89$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 757.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…61bbbacked No | 19c | 740.09$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +90%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef95…88c0backed Yes | 22c | 730.65$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e07…358abacked No | 10c | 673.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 74c | 660.68$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.26 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 10c | 620.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.01 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 54c | 588.95$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.45 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 572.62$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.67 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…0b2cbacked No | 77c | 500.86$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 28c | 494.61$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.09 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f4…2b92backed No | 13c | 487.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 19c | 483.47$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.52 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb419…818bbacked No | 3c | 464.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 431.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.13 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Yes | 17c | 417$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 79c | 381.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x580f…1c26backed No | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed Yes | 27c | 331$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.94 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 38c | 321.2$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.4 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 68c | 295.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…53cabacked Yes | 10c | 277.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +314.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 17c | 267.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.96 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…c9d1backed No | 12c | 267.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 38c | 261.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.17 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7930…b208backed No | 12c | 256.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 33cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 75c | 254.68$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 9c | 254.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 10c | 254$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 22c | 249.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 18c | 245.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.3 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45af…7f15backed No | 13c | 228.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed No | 6c | 224.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d01…6ca9backed No | 15c | 223.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837a…77e1backed No | 6c | 216$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 49c | 212.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 19c | 204.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.21 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…69b7backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa35…0873backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 61c | 199.49$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f1…50f7backed No | 19c | 197.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42e…284bbacked No | 10c | 192.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…4345backed No | 10c | 189.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 18c | 185.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 28c | 180$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 57c | 179.84$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 15c | 168$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 37c | 157$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.69 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 154.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 17c | 152.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.09 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8016…9860backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…dcd6backed No | 13c | 149.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 14c | 147.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…801cbacked No | 14c | 142.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4549…0450backed No | 13c | 142.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked Yes | 13c | 141.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.15 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…ebccbacked Yes | 17c | 139.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fe…b5d1backed Yes | 21c | 136.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8323…6bb8backed No | 75c | 134.18$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…40e4backed No | 76c | 131.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4b…dcd8backed Yes | 18c | 129.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 40c | 127.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dd…1590backed No | 17c | 116.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…c097backed Yes | 34c | 103.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ce…a430backed No | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…e548backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…4349backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…e644backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 33c | 96.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…59d3backed Yes | 23c | 89.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed Yes | 23c | 88.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…9d60backed No | 77c | 84.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e68…b800backed Yes | 23c | 79.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 76c | 74.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed Yes | 25c | 65.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.