TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by February 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,303
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,303 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes12c7,527$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.9924258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes13c6,831$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.3111839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes11c2,490$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.9825311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked Yes19c2,240$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43312547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes16c1,807$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.533218.8%6 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No70c1,500$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.0714355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed No73c1,465$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.73560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No67c1,220$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.67548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes26c1,208$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.0514750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes28c999.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28023435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e2…c477backed Yes21c935.05$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6561…c074backed Yes6c919.56$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.092850%14 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c863.83$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.831432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes15c799.33$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.92254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c720.87$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.15704.3%3 W · 67 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd8…7100backed Yes7c652.49$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.636442.2%27 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No79c641.04$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.159475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes15c605$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1513429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc193…7666backed Yes34c602.99$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes10c568$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4630837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes14c544.79$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes24c500$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1188639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes27c479.14$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5614239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes15c451$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.651127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-46.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b52…d558backed Yes18c390.07$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7140%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes8c381.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.913040%12 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes19c380$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes9c373.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3935341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4de1…d632backed Yes23c350$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-55.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d0…9e65backed No72c347.22$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.229257.6%53 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes16c344.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.56437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed No72c302.61$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.735563.6%35 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2312225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc7d…e203backed No71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.11887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+85.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes9c299.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes20c296.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.39115.4%14 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes8c294.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9517232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No57c281.41$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.4114147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab21…4b87backed Yes16c278$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…8b21backed Yes19c259.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.26728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-62.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4992…9cd4backed Yes14c250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes15c241.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3311225.9%29 W · 83 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b42…8d05backed No71c212$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.48475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes22c200$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes10c184.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.852646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes11c173.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7126318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…6fcbbacked No72c166.67$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.671533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No59c156.54$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7821426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d85…91b8backed Yes14c147$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes35c132.25$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4729416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes10c132.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.22432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes15c127.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.061118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes27c124.93$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.333650%18 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ab4…e073backed Yes17c121.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.716752.2%35 W · 32 L+7.1wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+61.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes18c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.65318.9%10 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed Yes30c119.49$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee4…9798backed Yes30c115.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.552828.6%8 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes42c102.52$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.55714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc999…ca09backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd1…1798backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes14c97.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.27243.1%31 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c93.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9441736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c9d…5d14backed Yes22c93.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes17c77.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.174060%24 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3faa…7472backed No58c68.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x892a…deccbacked No73c65.75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+77.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb51c…502dbacked Yes43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-50.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a8…c016backed Yes17c58.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74e0…a58ebacked No70c57.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.14450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a10…9977backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No55c44.44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ff…9a20backed No69c43.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.361978.9%15 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+48.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfdb5…b3cfbacked Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7023…b538backed Yes29c39.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8394…8d66backed No71c36.92$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f0…6f8ebacked Yes29c36.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b0…fcf7backed No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bfb…7488backed No71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a5…748cbacked No73c27.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd0e…13bfbacked Yes54c23.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+57%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xab96…5e59backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-72.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.