Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31849e677aa5f8ac3d0bd7ab46731a4135d42540c07615aed8e751f639e1e6df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 12c | 7,527$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.99 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 13c | 6,831$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.31 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 2,490$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.98 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,240$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 16c | 1,807$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.53 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 70c | 1,500$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.07 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed No | 73c | 1,465$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.7 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 67c | 1,220$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.6 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 26c | 1,208$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.05 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…c477backed Yes | 21c | 935.05$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 6c | 919.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 863.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 15c | 799.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 720.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed Yes | 7c | 652.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 79c | 641.04$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.15 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 15c | 605$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…7666backed Yes | 34c | 602.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 568$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 14c | 544.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 24c | 500$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 27c | 479.14$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes | 15c | 451$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…d558backed Yes | 18c | 390.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 8c | 381.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes | 19c | 380$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 9c | 373.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 23c | 350$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 72c | 347.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 16c | 344.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 72c | 302.61$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…e203backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 299.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 20c | 296.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 294.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 57c | 281.41$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.41 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed Yes | 16c | 278$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Yes | 19c | 259.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…9cd4backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 241.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…8d05backed No | 71c | 212$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 10c | 184.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 173.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…6fcbbacked No | 72c | 166.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 59c | 156.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d85…91b8backed Yes | 14c | 147$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 132.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 10c | 132.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 15c | 127.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 27c | 124.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 17c | 121.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 30c | 119.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9798backed Yes | 30c | 115.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes | 42c | 102.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd1…1798backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 97.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 93.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9d…5d14backed Yes | 22c | 93.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes | 17c | 77.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3faa…7472backed No | 58c | 68.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x892a…deccbacked No | 73c | 65.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 17c | 58.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…a58ebacked No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…9977backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed No | 69c | 43.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…b3cfbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…b538backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8394…8d66backed No | 71c | 36.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f0…6f8ebacked Yes | 29c | 36.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…fcf7backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…7488backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a5…748cbacked No | 73c | 27.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…13bfbacked Yes | 54c | 23.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +57%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…5e59backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.