Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08fc2218b587f4fa63a21ad61e5da2702ee890d5469054f0a985816bd252476f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 53c | 5,754$3,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,722.13 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 3,658$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.89 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 50c | 3,086$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.18 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…c279backed Yes | 63c | 2,666$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 24c | 2,648$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 55c | 2,071$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.31 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 43c | 1,701$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.47 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d3…52b9backed No | 45c | 1,624$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 46c | 1,614$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.13 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 57c | 1,400$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 35c | 1,357$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.5 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 51c | 1,108$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.79 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 44c | 1,048$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.22 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 48c | 969.14$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.77 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 899.95$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.25 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 833.51$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.66 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 34c | 753.76$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.87 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41df…4b70backed No | 44c | 732.56$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 51c | 665.77$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.33 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 23c | 663.16$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.26 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…da0ebacked No | 65c | 623.84$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 74c | 448.73$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.73 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4e…9e0bbacked Yes | 56c | 444.42$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 60c | 387.42$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.49 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 49c | 384.64$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 43c | 376.01$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 366.7$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.15 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7930…b208backed No | 44c | 342.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.29 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 33cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 49c | 280.26$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.15 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 51c | 243.75$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed No | 33c | 242.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 30c | 228.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 64c | 220.38$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.84 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…7e8fbacked Yes | 67c | 219.21$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 50c | 213.95$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 45c | 195$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7269backed No | 41c | 194.73$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 79c | 172.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 154.56$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 25c | 148.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 61c | 146.16$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 28c | 144.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…9d60backed No | 43c | 139.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8323…6bb8backed No | 72c | 136.8$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 54c | 135.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…a4d9backed No | 77c | 131.3$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4153…c423backed No | 39c | 130.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…54e7backed Yes | 41c | 122.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 26c | 122.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked Yes | 12c | 119.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 54c | 117.96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4d…63d3backed No | 45c | 115.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 26c | 115.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed Yes | 24c | 96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 94.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 40c | 93.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 45c | 92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 55c | 92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 40c | 88.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaf…f7bfbacked No | 79c | 88.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked No | 36c | 83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…664dbacked Yes | 39c | 82.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 32c | 75.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…ef8dbacked No | 45c | 70.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc05b…c081backed No | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 56c | 69.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes | 52c | 66.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 29c | 64.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 42c | 63.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 48c | 63.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 35c | 59.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…c691backed Yes | 44c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…ebccbacked Yes | 24c | 47.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 65c | 46.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed Yes | 26c | 46.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 58c | 46.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 46c | 41.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 39c | 38.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed Yes | 32c | 37.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed No | 51c | 36.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…f825backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 55c | 36.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 58c | 35.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…2c9abacked No | 68c | 35.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b3…c439backed No | 44c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No | 65c | 28.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 77c | 28.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 44c | 27.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4468…5d2dbacked Yes | 49c | 26.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ce…0026backed Yes | 60c | 25.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…5cf7backed No | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8baf…39d1backed Yes | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.