World Politics · resolved market
Will the CDU/CSU win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe513c27e266f08d04a617053118f20b8311c898791b96beeac4aab6a1da08ded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $487,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $390,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $487,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9f2…3b01backed Yes | 7c | 67,267$4,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,787.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 6c | 47,598$2,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,846.04 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 23,096$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.24 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 1c | 18,573$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.57 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…d2afbacked Yes | 0c | 13,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…b3bebacked Yes | 2c | 13,180$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 6c | 10,737$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.26 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 3c | 10,721$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.18 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 9,728$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.91 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 4c | 7,485$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.36 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 1c | 7,426$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 1c | 5,441$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…f95dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,282$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1888…d9d4backed Yes | 2c | 5,079$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 3c | 4,600$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…996bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,192$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…ed94backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +2,128.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 5c | 3,760$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.33 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,720$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,293$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 3,211$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674b…4b82backed Yes | 1c | 3,193$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c58…e62bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,154$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 1c | 2,920$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…b030backed Yes | 7c | 2,822$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.13 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 5c | 2,297$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.17 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…936cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,137$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 4c | 1,933$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…22f8backed Yes | 6c | 1,789$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -46%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,732$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,352$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…c8d5backed Yes | 1c | 1,078$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb5…3dbfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,069$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9a…06bebacked Yes | 6c | 1,007$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 940.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6559…6e46backed Yes | 1c | 918$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…b3b7backed Yes | 7c | 912.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6484…d46ebacked Yes | 1c | 893.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 878$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…fd17backed Yes | 8c | 743.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d81…fd67backed Yes | 4c | 714.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 680.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 642.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 2c | 632.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 610.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb942…3d50backed Yes | 2c | 608.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes | 11c | 573.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb848…157bbacked Yes | 2c | 568.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…8b28backed Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…fd2fbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 6c | 499.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…a23abacked Yes | 4c | 487.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…d8fabacked Yes | 8c | 456.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x062e…e386backed Yes | 9c | 441.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 3c | 440.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…1883backed Yes | 8c | 430.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked Yes | 3c | 399.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9c…ceaabacked Yes | 6c | 393.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 4c | 378.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…0672backed Yes | 7c | 350.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246c…4c1abacked Yes | 4c | 339.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 5c | 326.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eca…8dd7backed Yes | 5c | 316.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…7c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 315.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…b532backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 295.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 6c | 259$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…0ba9backed Yes | 4c | 257.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7006…6455backed Yes | 4c | 253.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…c28abacked Yes | 8c | 246.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9f…0cdfbacked Yes | 6c | 240.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…8d7ebacked Yes | 7c | 217.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…f9a6backed Yes | 7c | 202.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…6fc3backed Yes | 8c | 202.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…d7b8backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa274…6769backed Yes | 7c | 196.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…8979backed Yes | 6c | 156.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9472…df4fbacked Yes | 7c | 148$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea1…ebb4backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233f…051cbacked Yes | 14c | 72.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the CDU/CSU win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win 35-40% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win over 40% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.