World Politics · resolved market
Will the CDU/CSU win over 40% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f355694a819f00737086a77dc017a1c1cfe99aa93ec6c7a98013536817dea09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $599,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $231,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $599,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 60,303$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 46,859$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.49 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes | 0c | 32,031$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.91 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 0c | 24,584$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 0c | 23,630$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 0c | 19,899$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…484abacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,966$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 10,630$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ab…f151backed Yes | 1c | 10,462$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 1c | 8,347$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 7,577$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7816…af9dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,165$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…4c84backed Yes | 1c | 3,834$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 1c | 3,281$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d66…a385backed Yes | 0c | 3,269$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 2,576$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb6…7563backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,218$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 924.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 6c | 366.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c7…fa37backed Yes | 5c | 229.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f94…0e56backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 7c | 153.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the CDU/CSU win over 40% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the CDU/CSU win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win 35-40% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.