World Politics · resolved market
Will the CDU/CSU win 35-40% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf7a655001050f0931f2921137980d0e5223b5751814c270b72617ab9a508c53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $564,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $383,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $564,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7816…af9dbacked Yes | 8c | 99,450$8,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,407.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 6c | 45,275$2,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,558.85 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…b3bebacked Yes | 5c | 37,808$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.51 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…3fc9backed Yes | 0c | 32,211$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…7134backed Yes | 8c | 26,197$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 1c | 22,500$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.5 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 6c | 14,927$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.56 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 9c | 13,613$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.64 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 2c | 11,158$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.33 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 9c | 10,300$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.79 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 8,950$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…2952backed Yes | 3c | 7,881$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 7,723$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.17 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 7,602$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.74 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed Yes | 13c | 6,171$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.74 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 5c | 5,144$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.33 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…d2debacked Yes | 13c | 4,909$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…abc0backed Yes | 10c | 4,474$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,390$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…f3cfbacked Yes | 8c | 4,147$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ab…f151backed Yes | 10c | 3,925$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 1c | 2,750$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac6…c6ecbacked Yes | 8c | 2,044$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…39b7backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…5d14backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e8…4747backed Yes | 5c | 1,892$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 2c | 1,831$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 7c | 1,713$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…d282backed Yes | 2c | 1,173$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,092$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…d95cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,050$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…f801backed Yes | 5c | 1,020$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…947ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…18e8backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd38…09a8backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4098…e82fbacked Yes | 2c | 987.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 12c | 950$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 9c | 888.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…484abacked Yes | 3c | 885.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…9000backed Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Yes | 7c | 748.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19da…11f0backed Yes | 13c | 746.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…366cbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 12c | 700$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x650f…e81ebacked Yes | 4c | 697.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 8c | 691$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x003e…fc58backed Yes | 10c | 578.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160c…a716backed Yes | 14c | 559.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 10c | 558.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 556.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 541$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b71…f6eabacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…60b2backed Yes | 3c | 441$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 15c | 435$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 16c | 434.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f35…41d3backed Yes | 6c | 416.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…e4a8backed Yes | 6c | 412.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…a817backed Yes | 5c | 408.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 375.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f1…5e49backed Yes | 12c | 346.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 11c | 344.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 9c | 330$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc22…0471backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…f95dbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 9c | 277.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 12c | 252$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d4…0065backed Yes | 14c | 251.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ac…5a4ebacked Yes | 8c | 235.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…e01abacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9c…ceaabacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 12c | 186$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f94…0e56backed Yes | 25c | 159.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…4c84backed Yes | 13c | 148.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9f…0cdfbacked Yes | 9c | 134.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5f…e086backed Yes | 14c | 103.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x283f…a9abbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc373…bd7bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a0…1204backed Yes | 16c | 71.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 70c | 59.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 53c | 28.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the CDU/CSU win 35-40% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the CDU/CSU win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win over 40% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.