Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa71e9fe445379ccfc4404edc5c215e4c9ab4175ef439b746fcb50b5910ccdde6

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 14, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $639,209
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $546,302

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $639,209 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,632 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes	47c	29,892$13,911 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,910.9	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes	56c	25,891$14,618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,617.77	81	38.3%31 W · 50 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes	55c	23,976$13,126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,126.31	112	47.3%53 W · 59 L	+9.7wins	+0.09per pick	39cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6261…7ce4backed Yes	56c	20,475$11,459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,459.11	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	48c	18,174$8,807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,806.94	121	33.1%40 W · 81 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes	51c	18,007$9,182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,182.02	89	21.3%19 W · 70 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+105.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes	54c	17,866$9,720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,719.52	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.20per pick	49cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1add…d2afbacked Yes	1c	13,711$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.61	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ac…1af2backed Yes	56c	13,685$7,634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,633.54	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No	49c	13,564$6,626 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,938.49	432	43.1%186 W · 246 L	+29.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes	47c	11,050$5,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,199.82	92	37%34 W · 58 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed Yes	50c	10,005$4,994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,993.52	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Yes	55c	9,890$5,439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,438.61	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b08…daf0backed Yes	63c	9,121$5,742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,742.2	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-63%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	5c	9,063$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.27	206	14.6%30 W · 176 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes	25c	8,654$2,166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,166.19	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed Yes	2c	8,266$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.82	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No	45c	8,238$3,712 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,525.43	93	34.4%32 W · 61 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes	45c	8,142$3,639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,639.39	105	33.3%35 W · 70 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x359b…12aebacked Yes	48c	7,837$3,756 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,756.06	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes	1c	7,147$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.43	140	33.6%47 W · 93 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eca…63a9backed Yes	1c	5,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked Yes	17c	4,973$858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$858.23	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-54%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes	51c	4,349$2,210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,210.06	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	+3.9wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes	0c	4,250$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	18c	4,129$745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$744.77	482	24.7%119 W · 363 L	-7.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed Yes	51c	4,124$2,088 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,088.32	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb436…8258backed Yes	10c	3,823$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.66	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15db…8120backed Yes	1c	3,718$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.62	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes	55c	3,419$1,893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,893.28	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e1…1282backed Yes	49c	3,339$1,652 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,652.28	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-3.9wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c71…0cf9backed Yes	48c	3,158$1,502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,502.14	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes	47c	3,145$1,482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,482.28	114	54.4%62 W · 52 L	+5.8wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e21…d2debacked Yes	54c	2,770$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb497…9c9bbacked Yes	54c	2,596$1,397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,397	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes	49c	2,551$1,249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,249.06	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes	49c	2,501$1,220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,219.74	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	-5.2wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes	53c	2,458$1,302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,302.38	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No	41c	2,182$902 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,279.52	152	37.5%57 W · 95 L	+8.0wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb18…195bbacked Yes	54c	2,100$1,142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,141.96	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed Yes	33c	2,065$675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes	63c	2,001$1,254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,254	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1e…1f0bbacked Yes	1c	1,974$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.09	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	45c	1,916$869 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$868.81	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed No	50c	1,788$893 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$894.6	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	-3.6wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes	53c	1,778$936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$935.65	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-4.6wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes	9c	1,776$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.84	72	25%18 W · 54 L	+9.7wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+262.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes	59c	1,701$1,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,003	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes	50c	1,700$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$855	72	54.2%39 W · 33 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb4c…1ca9backed Yes	66c	1,654$1,099 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,099	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	29cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes	20c	1,636$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.12	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes	52c	1,600$832 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$832	55	21.8%12 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes	56c	1,500$840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$840	69	30.4%21 W · 48 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x990a…7134backed Yes	47c	1,412$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.84	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8864…3ed5backed Yes	49c	1,375$679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$678.75	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	40c	1,357$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$546.24	253	37.2%94 W · 159 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes	46c	1,333$611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.86	278	28.1%78 W · 200 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	52c	1,314$685 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$629.2	576	36.3%209 W · 367 L	-27.2wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d13…082cbacked Yes	51c	1,274$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.39	60	35%21 W · 39 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes	52c	1,239$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	34	55.9%19 W · 15 L	-3.6wins	-0.10per pick	66cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8239…ddd7backed Yes	50c	1,238$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.57	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed Yes	53c	1,139$604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$604.09	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44a…a403backed Yes	47c	1,054$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe433…e0f7backed Yes	53c	1,040$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb54…6e4bbacked Yes	53c	1,020$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes	49c	1,015$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.85	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-4.1wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes	34c	1,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	110	13.6%15 W · 95 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfc41…38edbacked Yes	50c	999.99$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c58…e62bbacked Yes	51c	980.27$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.54	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes	52c	947.08$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.48	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd699…68fabacked Yes	1c	907.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes	1c	870$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	120	29.2%35 W · 85 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Yes	7c	796.46$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.09	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe02…aaeebacked Yes	41c	775.4$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes	2c	766.67$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-3.0wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed Yes	24c	700$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167	54	29.6%16 W · 38 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes	44c	691$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.04	123	32.5%40 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4b…559cbacked No	42c	659.84$277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.71	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed Yes	44c	646.51$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.47	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4124…5827backed Yes	60c	619.06$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.44	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd897…a582backed Yes	49c	612.23$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.33	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x779a…6bc0backed Yes	56c	609.95$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.79	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes	53c	600$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.29per pick	55cpaid	+57.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	43c	599.98$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$342.99	190	27.9%53 W · 137 L	+14.5wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+53%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	53c	579.53$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.28	190	43.7%83 W · 107 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa15f…5657backed Yes	52c	555.77$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No	54c	550$295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.5	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06bd…e6f5backed Yes	62c	519.94$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf767…b532backed Yes	58c	489.99$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.6	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ddd…60edbacked Yes	53c	483.16$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa587…82d1backed Yes	48c	478.15$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bc2…55d7backed Yes	25c	473.25$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.16	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	33cpaid	-73%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe991…10f5backed Yes	49c	466.67$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4145…fc24backed Yes	44c	450.6$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-4.1wins	-0.17per pick	59cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e02…aa22backed Yes	67c	449.91$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.34per pick	59cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes	54c	430.62$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.1	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf04e…22debacked Yes	63c	428.55$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.76	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes	42c	421$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.82	86	41.9%36 W · 50 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-23%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df8…6bf3backed Yes	58c	414.92$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.36	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+146%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefd9…d674backed Yes	7c	410.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

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Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?this page
Will the CDU/CSU win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?No won
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
Will the CDU/CSU win 35-40% of the vote in the German election?No won
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?No won
Will the CDU/CSU win over 40% of the vote in the German election?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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