Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11100010be5f619285e4a530d2a52a3b7a64951b8f5f7ac6d466028dcebbcd26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 12c | 9,103$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.22 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 11c | 6,040$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.62 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…a59dbacked No | 2c | 4,811$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 22c | 4,040$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.49 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 68c | 3,604$2,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.52 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 3,100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 65c | 2,228$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,175$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 74c | 2,115$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.14 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 1c | 2,031$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a8…7df4backed No | 8c | 2,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 38c | 1,568$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.59 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed No | 12c | 1,554$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,417$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 32c | 1,378$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.42 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 48c | 1,299$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.01 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 46c | 1,226$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.46 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…cb34backed Yes | 30c | 1,222$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.84 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 4c | 1,107$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked No | 10c | 1,077$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.11 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 1c | 1,047$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +269.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 17c | 1,000$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.51 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 6c | 877.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 70c | 651.13$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.24 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 70c | 645.8$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.35 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…2429backed No | 11c | 631.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked Yes | 27c | 555$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.15 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 17c | 546.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 51c | 494.53$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.16 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46ea…a98fbacked No | 73c | 486.65$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 71c | 480.5$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked No | 13c | 370$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 14c | 357.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 18c | 286$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 78c | 265.46$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 17c | 259.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 10c | 250.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 52c | 234.86$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 43c | 228.37$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.41 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 10c | 210$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 29c | 209.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.22 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 11c | 206$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 194.53$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.05 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.02 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 36c | 178.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…0b70backed No | 12c | 176.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 169.38$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed No | 74c | 161.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 63c | 161.01$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 10c | 159$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 16c | 157$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 72c | 153.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…3f5abacked Yes | 74c | 152.69$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 36c | 151.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.13 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…be57backed No | 7c | 149.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 39c | 143.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 35c | 139.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 69c | 128.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…5608backed No | 12c | 108.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 37c | 108$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 36c | 108$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 9c | 105.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 52c | 105.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ba…4cedbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…518dbacked No | 74c | 93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 41c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe85…81e5backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 28c | 77.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 76.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…80f6backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ff…c0efbacked No | 58c | 72.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 58c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…2f21backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae78…9275backed No | 76c | 65.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 44c | 63.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 27c | 57.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 63c | 46.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…9ee3backed No | 66c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 39c | 34.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 67c | 31.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked No | 64c | 18.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.