Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaad557a03ecd6382d02aa29509c85007d657478c9ce8cc6ab2b69270b631e72e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 35c | 2,548$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.23 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,605$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.79 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 1,394$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5952…1e81backed No | 9c | 1,083$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 21c | 899.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 841.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…e366backed Yes | 65c | 770$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 78c | 595.98$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.06 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 25c | 400$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 67c | 396.95$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.74 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 73c | 336.3$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 71c | 311.01$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc3…084abacked Yes | 58c | 247.42$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 15c | 234$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 37c | 218.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 69c | 209.3$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 75c | 208.65$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 64c | 173.21$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 9c | 168.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 14c | 157.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 16c | 153.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 64c | 101$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 13c | 99.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 76c | 89.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed No | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked Yes | 65c | 76.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…5b5fbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 63c | 49.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 64c | 44.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 36.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…b385backed Yes | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 65c | 27.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 63c | 24.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 65c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 65c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.