Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f0de3bde52136e0cbaa9ad698a95861539d0ba66d166b006eb6937d4ffb8a90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $194,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $218,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 70c | 22,859$15,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,951.36 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…90dabacked No | 73c | 22,394$16,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,993.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 26c | 22,299$5,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,695.65 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 32c | 12,816$4,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,105.82 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 76c | 11,694$8,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,857.12 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes | 27c | 10,652$2,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,876.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 67c | 5,994$4,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955.35 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 29c | 5,742$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.96 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 30c | 5,000$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed Yes | 33c | 5,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,507$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…586abacked No | 74c | 4,076$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.42 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 68c | 3,844$2,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5a…747abacked Yes | 30c | 3,325$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,811$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.21 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 62c | 2,466$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.34 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked No | 80c | 2,312$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 69c | 2,171$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.36 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14bc…3904backed Yes | 1c | 2,133$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…ea35backed Yes | 26c | 1,923$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 1,800$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.99 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 70c | 1,745$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.17 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa22…69a6backed No | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.86 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…575fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,282$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff9…eeecbacked No | 79c | 1,035$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…a1a3backed Yes | 8c | 1,010$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 74c | 995.25$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.72 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 74c | 970.36$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.96 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe556…4659backed Yes | 21c | 931.9$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 30c | 903.29$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 900.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked No | 77c | 899.83$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.96 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 890.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 30c | 870.76$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.1 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 31c | 847.59$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.7 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked No | 73c | 834.99$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.25 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 26c | 755.91$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…2d6abacked No | 75c | 733.33$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…9e58backed No | 72c | 697.08$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.08 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed No | 73c | 658.53$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc87f…9c0cbacked No | 80c | 640$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9b…1542backed Yes | 32c | 638.11$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 32c | 622.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 73c | 610$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.2 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes | 33c | 600$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 78c | 588$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 72c | 586.84$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.1 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 78c | 580$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 3c | 576.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b3…cfd0backed Yes | 2c | 568.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 559.65$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.94 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…cc30backed Yes | 3c | 545$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 13c | 537.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e6…b3fdbacked No | 78c | 532.17$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f7…8917backed No | 74c | 528.61$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.44 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 78c | 513.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.38 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 77c | 509.22$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.12 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked No | 73c | 500.34$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.09 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…46d0backed Yes | 24c | 500$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 495.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked Yes | 29c | 483.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.02 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ba…c903backed No | 63c | 480$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 77c | 461.2$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 21c | 456$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…65d8backed No | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a2…02a5backed Yes | 32c | 437.47$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5866…2bf1backed Yes | 23c | 428.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 63c | 428.57$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.57 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 77c | 420$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 68c | 419.11$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.57 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 71c | 410.18$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.95 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 74c | 409.46$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.46 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…e203backed No | 69c | 400$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 29c | 400$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…2763backed Yes | 26c | 381.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 22c | 368.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Yes | 26c | 364.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 23c | 323.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 69c | 311.88$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.23 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…0d5bbacked No | 73c | 304.25$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…7d27backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…7552backed No | 73c | 285.96$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…ee32backed Yes | 33c | 271.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc565…6662backed No | 75c | 270$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 12c | 260$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Yes | 20c | 255.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e23…8579backed No | 77c | 250.97$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 74c | 247.74$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed No | 74c | 245$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4497backed No | 74c | 240$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 29c | 221.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 30c | 213$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 19c | 209.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…6c69backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 76c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.