TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$194,958
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$218,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,958 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x054b…8477backed No70c22,859$15,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,951.363262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+40.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x36d8…90dabacked No73c22,394$16,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,993.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes26c22,299$5,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,695.654156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes32c12,816$4,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,105.8223435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No76c11,694$8,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,857.1211040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes27c10,652$2,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,876.09728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-60.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No67c5,994$4,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,955.3514456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes29c5,742$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.9624258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes30c5,000$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47515029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed Yes33c5,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c4,507$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.54631.6%1 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5c9…586abacked No74c4,076$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.421566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2755…5016backed No68c3,844$2,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.15450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5a…747abacked Yes30c3,325$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96014750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes10c2,811$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.211910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No62c2,466$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.3435341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf155…76bdbacked No80c2,312$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.42580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No69c2,171$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.369962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x14bc…3904backed Yes1c2,133$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2a…ea35backed Yes26c1,923$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No75c1,800$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.9926835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No70c1,745$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.179360.2%56 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa22…69a6backed No73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.864067.5%27 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+39.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6183…575fbacked Yes23c1,282$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+47.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcff9…eeecbacked No79c1,035$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c78…a1a3backed Yes8c1,010$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No74c995.25$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.727548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No74c970.36$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.968355.4%46 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe556…4659backed Yes21c931.9$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5960%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf330…f779backed Yes30c903.29$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.991546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c900.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.251302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe102…71dfbacked No77c899.83$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.961421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-55.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c890.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.771074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes30c870.76$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.125528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes31c847.59$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.715451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6d8c…b79abacked No73c834.99$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.253658.3%21 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked Yes26c755.91$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.54757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+133.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x01e4…2d6abacked No75c733.33$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.33825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e21…9e58backed No72c697.08$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.082157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+41.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0164…9ed6backed No73c658.53$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.81855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc87f…9c0cbacked No80c640$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d9b…1542backed Yes32c638.11$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.71346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked Yes32c622.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x343d…cd2ebacked No73c610$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.25572.7%40 W · 15 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+19.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes33c600$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-21.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No78c588$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.368660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No72c586.84$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.18232.9%27 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No78c580$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.61926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes3c576.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.672352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b3…cfd0backed Yes2c568.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+45.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No76c559.65$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.9413128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfde9…cc30backed Yes3c545$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes13c537.66$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.221910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-86.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40e6…b3fdbacked No78c532.17$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.21714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-81.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3f7…8917backed No74c528.61$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.446100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No78c513.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3814147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No77c509.22$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.128733.3%29 W · 58 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc7c…3d8cbacked No73c500.34$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.09875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3a7…46d0backed Yes24c500$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1356933.3%23 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes10c495.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8212225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e26…336cbacked Yes29c483.99$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.023666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ba…c903backed No63c480$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.62060%12 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No77c461.2$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.762560%15 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes21c456$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.922536%9 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x153b…65d8backed No68c441.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.183161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1a2…02a5backed Yes32c437.47$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5866…2bf1backed Yes23c428.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe50…6eb6backed No63c428.57$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.575352.8%28 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked No77c420$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.67656.6%43 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed No68c419.11$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.573759.5%22 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No71c410.18$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.957843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No74c409.46$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4610357.3%59 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc7d…e203backed No69c400$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.6887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+85.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed No75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf73…0436backed Yes29c400$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.35561.8%34 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ca…2763backed Yes26c381.7$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes22c368.41$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4311839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d0…60a1backed Yes26c364.27$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7150%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0991…e29abacked Yes23c323.14$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752623.1%6 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No69c311.88$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2315855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb78d…0d5bbacked No73c304.25$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.15580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9611741%48 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf3bc…7d27backed Yes24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9732…7552backed No73c285.96$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.552665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9ea…ee32backed Yes33c271.13$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-63.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc565…6662backed No75c270$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes12c260$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa784…3605backed Yes20c255.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.260%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3e23…8579backed No77c250.97$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.921844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No74c247.74$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.416547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…1893backed No74c245$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.95162.7%32 W · 19 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x151d…4497backed No74c240$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes29c221.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.384748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes30c213$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.863650%18 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes19c209.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.081816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-53.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3538…6c69backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d1b…e75cbacked No76c200$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+53.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622540%10 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.