Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30779a5b03cff9251d259bc0a94e49d12a18eb501170fff2420da55370ecf297
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 4c | 11,527$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.74 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 5c | 6,452$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.63 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 5,672$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.76 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 14c | 5,414$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.52 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…1d5fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,444$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafcc…2e03backed Yes | 3c | 2,301$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4d…4349backed Yes | 3c | 2,088$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea0…2f9ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,079$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,888$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 78c | 1,508$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.72 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5394…3041backed Yes | 3c | 1,406$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bf…9ef5backed Yes | 3c | 1,351$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42f…3028backed Yes | 3c | 1,350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…280bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,348$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…aa66backed Yes | 2c | 1,338$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…e5a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,338$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d32…2ca2backed Yes | 3c | 1,329$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7a…09f8backed Yes | 3c | 1,325$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…c8efbacked Yes | 3c | 1,324$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…ed88backed Yes | 3c | 1,177$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 3c | 1,167$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf32…2654backed Yes | 3c | 1,138$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f4…8d1abacked Yes | 3c | 1,128$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ce…13a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,065$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +487.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4668…8ff1backed Yes | 2c | 1,046$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…8cecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,035$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…5c3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,030$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbe…4ac1backed Yes | 3c | 1,027$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f2…f4f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,015$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c01…df23backed Yes | 3c | 1,015$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0242…9076backed Yes | 3c | 1,006$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…9dcfbacked Yes | 3c | 992$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…8467backed Yes | 2c | 990$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ee…af7bbacked Yes | 2c | 980$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5e…26c0backed Yes | 2c | 979.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3733…6ce0backed Yes | 2c | 965$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…31b9backed Yes | 3c | 964$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…b8debacked Yes | 3c | 960$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…5cf6backed Yes | 3c | 957$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea1…122cbacked Yes | 3c | 942$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5703…82b3backed Yes | 3c | 907$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…10e4backed Yes | 2c | 894.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c5…4b16backed Yes | 3c | 885.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4f…78eebacked Yes | 3c | 854$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc458…ccb7backed Yes | 2c | 850$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d5…103fbacked Yes | 2c | 849.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942a…c9c2backed Yes | 2c | 843$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa132…191cbacked Yes | 2c | 843$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…af9fbacked Yes | 5c | 784.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e5…36bfbacked Yes | 5c | 784.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 3c | 671.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 631.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 600.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 569.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 5c | 543.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes | 5c | 530$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 5c | 520.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 4c | 485.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 410.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 4c | 375.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…cf45backed Yes | 10c | 314.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8029…bafcbacked Yes | 4c | 269.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 9c | 250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ab…654cbacked Yes | 22c | 229.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 210.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 9c | 202.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 8c | 199.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…3307backed Yes | 14c | 180.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf226…9c20backed Yes | 15c | 71.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…8194backed No | 79c | 61.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 79c | 33.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed No | 78c | 21.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.