Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf772cab339a0049446f8e0183865a1c68ae7df3512d73c48bc3d1c2d5061f77b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 19c | 10,692$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.86 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 20c | 7,328$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.72 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 79c | 7,000$5,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.8 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…dc48backed Yes | 20c | 5,967$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 3c | 4,576$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked No | 77c | 4,000$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…b515backed No | 79c | 3,054$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,880$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…586abacked No | 78c | 2,437$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.12 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5a…747abacked Yes | 23c | 2,152$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 16c | 2,050$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.67 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 17c | 1,584$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.99 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,556$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 76c | 1,358$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.64 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 23c | 1,267$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 76c | 1,197$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.28 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2503…9be5backed Yes | 6c | 1,091$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…2b64backed Yes | 5c | 1,013$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 785.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…2634backed Yes | 2c | 769$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x400c…8a28backed Yes | 2c | 769$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 11c | 753.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d31…75d9backed Yes | 24c | 700$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 13c | 690$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 680.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 79c | 679.16$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes | 19c | 647.35$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes | 7c | 646.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 79c | 623.32$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.49 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…1f04backed No | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 15c | 536.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…ea9abacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 79c | 480$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 18c | 452.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…6c69backed Yes | 15c | 345$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 78c | 331.33$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 20c | 304.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Yes | 23c | 300$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 76c | 299.99$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9798backed Yes | 16c | 292.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…fd7bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…b3fcbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…96cfbacked Yes | 14c | 241.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fda…7453backed Yes | 5c | 239.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 21c | 220.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 10c | 203.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…cf45backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd940…8d04backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…8bacbacked Yes | 23c | 176.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed No | 71c | 173.24$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…340bbacked Yes | 6c | 169.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 16c | 160$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 7c | 157.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…7e8fbacked Yes | 23c | 151.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed No | 79c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +184.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 149.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…3307backed Yes | 22c | 139.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4d…0411backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…6b02backed No | 80c | 126.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…dfb5backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 20c | 104.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 103.33$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x271b…ba02backed Yes | 20c | 100.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3262…8a46backed Yes | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf728…1e11backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…7cd6backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 25c | 81.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 62.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…9d20backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a4…df53backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5caa…ec5cbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +72%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…b412backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd349…bc73backed No | 77c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ae…9532backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a3…12f0backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e68…b800backed No | 80c | 21.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa370…6b5bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbf…3faebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d42…f376backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd4…a038backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938f…caefbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed No | 80c | 17.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.