Us Politics · resolved market
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12252bc93225bbd5278e796b30c0b8f898314181fd22ee4ffe9a453d98615b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 12,000$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…7420backed Yes | 3c | 3,314$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 3,032$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…d678backed Yes | 5c | 2,076$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 10c | 1,655$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.78 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2534…41c9backed Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284c…7b30backed Yes | 1c | 1,434$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…986fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,324$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,281$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,171$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,163$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 3c | 1,058$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc48…badfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,019$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1588…0f2fbacked Yes | 4c | 967.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…09e0backed Yes | 11c | 938.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 7c | 936.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…28c0backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…c7f7backed Yes | 13c | 734.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 7c | 713.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 5c | 712.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…b990backed Yes | 4c | 618$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…6654backed Yes | 8c | 602.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 7c | 557.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1674…8fc0backed Yes | 9c | 533.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0601backed Yes | 4c | 465$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7605…852abacked Yes | 4c | 445.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f35…7438backed Yes | 4c | 444.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…a552backed Yes | 2c | 402.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…f4c7backed Yes | 13c | 396.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941c…b24ebacked Yes | 4c | 338$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…653ebacked Yes | 5c | 330$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…1d8fbacked Yes | 4c | 314$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…c725backed Yes | 6c | 308.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…7e37backed Yes | 4c | 282$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 6c | 282$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc2…ff4ebacked Yes | 4c | 280$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08e…7a41backed Yes | 4c | 274$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x131b…4d0ebacked Yes | 6c | 271.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd0…65ddbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…fb1bbacked Yes | 6c | 202.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…f9abbacked Yes | 5c | 201$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…3182backed Yes | 5c | 200.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…f9adbacked Yes | 7c | 159.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…9612backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…a147backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?this page
- Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
- Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
- Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
- Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?Yes won
- Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.