Us Politics · resolved market
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9f8151603f3f0ca44f215eb209314270a7aeaf3ad0d409cb3edd4cd3bb4b624
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $763,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $763,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf53b…9c48backed Yes | 1c | 31,240$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 20,843$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,518$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6009…9905backed Yes | 1c | 8,010$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…899fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,010$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…28cabacked Yes | 1c | 8,010$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f98…ec42backed Yes | 1c | 6,408$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…e884backed Yes | 1c | 6,408$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2c…a8b2backed Yes | 1c | 6,408$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7db…ae9bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,408$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d5…c773backed Yes | 1c | 6,408$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927d…4b7cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,408$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b73…b23cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,408$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fa…b64bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,408$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63df…9358backed Yes | 1c | 6,408$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…929fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,408$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8388…7d41backed Yes | 1c | 6,408$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…b29cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,408$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9449…45cfbacked Yes | 1c | 6,408$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b2…6a57backed Yes | 1c | 6,408$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…805cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,806$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…ac25backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…2889backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7730…6a6dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd369…2d1cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72e…b6f5backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856c…8fddbacked Yes | 1c | 4,806$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1343…1a83backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…f664backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4185…706cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,806$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78d…abf8backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…d048backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf81…a558backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487a…8785backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…4716backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…5a46backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d2…5c5fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…6256backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…2f75backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…be93backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…9a72backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771e…34b6backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…fa4cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,806$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6984…ed33backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f97…b035backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b79…25edbacked Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b2…86b8backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcd…d2f5backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9068…3b9cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,806$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…24a5backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…1074backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d5…fbb8backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3203…85babacked Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…7e67backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a3…2449backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd516…5c23backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb944…9cb0backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 2c | 4,137$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…f4c7backed Yes | 0c | 3,297$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d3…6a8bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,275$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8361…c67ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,217$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5d…a62cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…b621backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…b5a4backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…e1e5backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ab…7cb1backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7626…96b6backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…9034backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…5c87backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…7b5fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdf…560abacked Yes | 1c | 3,204$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa111…90d5backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ee…9d6bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c50…66c4backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…6db7backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…e028backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…118fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…ef87backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…8574backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…ad21backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772c…94ccbacked Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd7…9357backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc19…d3bfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,204$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…9e9cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,204$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e69…2a2abacked Yes | 1c | 3,204$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…eba3backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77d…de40backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…5d44backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8722…d953backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…4503backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd05b…32a2backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad5a…f8d0backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d32…84b1backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…4ee1backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…2b53backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed50…e4fcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…bb2abacked Yes | 1c | 3,204$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…85b0backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61da…ed1fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b7…452abacked Yes | 1c | 3,204$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?this page
- Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
- Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
- Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
- Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
- Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.