TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$763,420
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$158,473

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $763,420 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf53b…9c48backed Yes1c31,240$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c20,843$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.53580%0 W · 58 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c9,518$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.952400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6009…9905backed Yes1c8,010$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98cc…899fbacked Yes1c8,010$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8209…28cabacked Yes1c8,010$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f98…ec42backed Yes1c6,408$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d2…e884backed Yes1c6,408$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff2c…a8b2backed Yes1c6,408$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7db…ae9bbacked Yes1c6,408$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41d5…c773backed Yes1c6,408$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x927d…4b7cbacked Yes1c6,408$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b73…b23cbacked Yes1c6,408$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fa…b64bbacked Yes1c6,408$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63df…9358backed Yes1c6,408$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d0…929fbacked Yes1c6,408$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8388…7d41backed Yes1c6,408$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5644…b29cbacked Yes1c6,408$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9449…45cfbacked Yes1c6,408$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b2…6a57backed Yes1c6,408$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe944…805cbacked Yes1c4,806$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae4…ac25backed Yes1c4,806$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefc0…2889backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7730…6a6dbacked Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd369…2d1cbacked Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb72e…b6f5backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x856c…8fddbacked Yes1c4,806$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1343…1a83backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa9f…f664backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4185…706cbacked Yes1c4,806$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe78d…abf8backed Yes1c4,806$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaece…d048backed Yes1c4,806$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf81…a558backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x487a…8785backed Yes1c4,806$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb75f…4716backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…5a46backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d2…5c5fbacked Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a1d…6256backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f0d…2f75backed Yes1c4,806$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e8…be93backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa20a…9a72backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771e…34b6backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc724…fa4cbacked Yes1c4,806$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6984…ed33backed Yes1c4,806$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f97…b035backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b79…25edbacked Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82b2…86b8backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bcd…d2f5backed Yes1c4,806$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9068…3b9cbacked Yes1c4,806$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2a8…24a5backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6af…1074backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d5…fbb8backed Yes1c4,806$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3203…85babacked Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x321e…7e67backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a3…2449backed Yes1c4,806$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd516…5c23backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb944…9cb0backed Yes1c4,806$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed Yes2c4,137$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.618632.6%28 W · 58 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f9f…f4c7backed Yes0c3,297$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03d3…6a8bbacked Yes2c3,275$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+169.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8361…c67ebacked Yes1c3,217$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d5d…a62cbacked Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…b621backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc45…b5a4backed Yes1c3,204$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16db…e1e5backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ab…7cb1backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7626…96b6backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x548c…9034backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…5c87backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4951…7b5fbacked Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcdf…560abacked Yes1c3,204$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa111…90d5backed Yes1c3,204$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ee…9d6bbacked Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c50…66c4backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b1…6db7backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a2d…e028backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f7…118fbacked Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11b0…ef87backed Yes1c3,204$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc04e…8574backed Yes1c3,204$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e8…ad21backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772c…94ccbacked Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bd7…9357backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc19…d3bfbacked Yes1c3,204$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0355…9e9cbacked Yes1c3,204$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e69…2a2abacked Yes1c3,204$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe131…eba3backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe77d…de40backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9f…5d44backed Yes1c3,204$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8722…d953backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa935…4503backed Yes1c3,204$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd05b…32a2backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad5a…f8d0backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d32…84b1backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ca…4ee1backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30f…2b53backed Yes1c3,204$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed50…e4fcbacked Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf859…bb2abacked Yes1c3,204$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515a…85b0backed Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61da…ed1fbacked Yes1c3,204$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0b7…452abacked Yes1c3,204$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.