Us Politics · resolved market
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99a2031057ef3bf05331e83fe6de70bbdb4f731be66c0e34fe314327c94b93cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $604,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $895,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $604,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 13,144$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…d2b3backed Yes | 1c | 12,051$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d3…6a8bbacked Yes | 5c | 7,513$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 1c | 6,183$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f6…b528backed Yes | 3c | 4,962$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,601$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 3,258$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,866$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 2,748$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed Yes | 4c | 2,574$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.03 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…09e0backed Yes | 5c | 1,872$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…d678backed Yes | 4c | 1,289$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 3c | 1,241$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 4c | 829.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 2c | 712.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 610$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…6654backed Yes | 8c | 596.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…b47abacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 463.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 428.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…f4c7backed Yes | 6c | 290$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?this page
- Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
- Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
- Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
- Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?Yes won
- Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.