Us Politics · resolved market
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41b85df47d19875c152e044e6486f71c3a6420911166e4f8877401539d0d3eb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $742,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $793,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $742,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16db…7c99backed No | 13c | 85,539$11,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,120.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…157fbacked No | 13c | 69,914$9,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,088.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed No | 16c | 10,002$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.01 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 8,854$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d3…6a8bbacked No | 28c | 7,152$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…aa20backed No | 0c | 6,592$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1af…f890backed No | 10c | 5,678$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed No | 0c | 5,261$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805c…f8c3backed No | 2c | 4,883$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 75c | 3,777$2,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.52 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…77f1backed No | 16c | 3,082$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 6c | 2,884$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.09 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 20c | 2,500$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.2 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 75c | 2,269$1,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.59 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,880$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.18 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 1c | 1,823$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 75c | 1,495$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.39 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 2c | 1,488$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 21c | 1,386$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.82 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 36c | 1,064$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.18 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked Yes | 76c | 1,044$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 6c | 934.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 3c | 922.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…3838backed No | 7c | 904.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…986fbacked Yes | 78c | 901.03$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.03 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed No | 2c | 725.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1588…0f2fbacked No | 6c | 697.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9a…81d5backed No | 50c | 692.33$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 666.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 26c | 650.43$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.32 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0aa…5afebacked Yes | 68c | 588.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…b65bbacked Yes | 72c | 536.32$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.82 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 71c | 479.77$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked No | 29c | 450$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…1b5abacked No | 44c | 449.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 439.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 3c | 402.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b11…8625backed No | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fbf6backed No | 25c | 393.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked Yes | 77c | 381$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked Yes | 75c | 351.99$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed No | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 54c | 349.24$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.65 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +10.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 26c | 287.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 12c | 281.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 75c | 280.32$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 73c | 273$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…bf57backed Yes | 80c | 260$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…e532backed Yes | 79c | 251.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 60c | 250$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 72c | 240$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 76c | 225$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21da…baf5backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 152.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…36f3backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b0…c32abacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 30c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2c…9b1cbacked No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…22b0backed No | 16c | 115.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…d121backed No | 17c | 111.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed No | 29c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 68c | 78.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked No | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0c…af79backed No | 29c | 69.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99de…316abacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed No | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c12…2b11backed Yes | 78c | 51.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…da0ebacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba6a…91d1backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6382…0454backed No | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 33c | 31.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…b299backed Yes | 77c | 31.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x683e…49bcbacked Yes | 70c | 27.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860a…2e92backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 71c | 24.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…6547backed Yes | 80c | 22.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 26cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…616cbacked Yes | 79c | 21.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?this page
- Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
- Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
- Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
- Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
- Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.