F1 · resolved market
Will Charles Leclerc finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01e83611e84e9d51926d613ca0591495c32d884dfd0adddc339b55175d4c531c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Yes | 31c | 416.48$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 322.26$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 34c | 300.47$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…1b38backed Yes | 36c | 279.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 34c | 235.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 206.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 25c | 155$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed No | 68c | 135$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 47c | 130$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87df…a242backed Yes | 58c | 129.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…fabdbacked Yes | 34c | 89.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 79.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…b64dbacked No | 47c | 72.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe75…b5c0backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked No | 71c | 68.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…c816backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…c56fbacked Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…dd63backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa652…ca34backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 44c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…a4fcbacked Yes | 31c | 34.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…7fa7backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Charles Leclerc finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?this page
- Will George Russell finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?No won
- Will Max Verstappen finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?No won
- Will any other driver finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.