F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1df0cc1defe47c5a45d62f37daba7f82665e03f75f1da550ecf4413ab4ceae34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 14c | 41,517$5,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,746.68 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 2c | 28,980$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +71%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 8c | 19,531$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.54 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 3c | 13,990$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.76 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 7c | 11,907$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.56 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 7c | 7,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 75c | 4,245$3,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.62 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 4c | 4,213$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 79c | 3,954$3,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.23 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 7c | 2,871$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.86 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 6c | 2,799$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 2,085$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 6c | 1,571$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c73cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 71c | 1,380$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.39 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbe…4dd6backed Yes | 4c | 1,229$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,215$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed No | 67c | 1,188$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.99 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a45…cf97backed Yes | 20c | 1,004$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.82 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3596…6c81backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…6887backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 69c | 837.72$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.79 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 15c | 670$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 10c | 610$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 92 | 19.6%18 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…dfd1backed Yes | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Yes | 5c | 486.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 65c | 475$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.59 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc827…1ed9backed Yes | 11c | 462.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 7c | 399.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 7c | 350$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 8c | 338.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed No | 67c | 305$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.24 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 7c | 266.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Yes | 7c | 225$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 6c | 216.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…896fbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 70c | 197.68$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +8.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 67c | 196.9$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked No | 65c | 195.18$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…8adabacked Yes | 8c | 175.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 13c | 168$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55a0…7ab4backed Yes | 12c | 167.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…0a49backed Yes | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 64c | 124.09$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 112 | 66.1%74 W · 38 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed Yes | 45c | 118.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c37…2607backed Yes | 14c | 102.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 64c | 86.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed No | 64c | 81.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 34c | 73.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 30c | 69.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 63c | 63.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…2c25backed Yes | 35c | 63.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 63c | 58.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…fecbbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…aaa2backed No | 68c | 39.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 32.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…6faabacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 30.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 66c | 26.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked No | 68c | 26.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 60c | 26.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb2…634dbacked No | 74c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +78%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Alexander Albon win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.