TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump call Carney a "Governor" before June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,908
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,807

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,908 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c7,556$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.141,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes22c5,592$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,374.873429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No75c4,995$3,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,729.42728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-51.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No8c3,937$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.3216744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No75c3,850$2,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,887.567834.6%27 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No80c3,003$2,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,397.584148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked No59c2,047$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.191136.4%4 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick63cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2de6…f360backed Yes27c1,650$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2011338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes22c1,563$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.463357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+58.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes39c1,493$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.271435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+49.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes76c1,288$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.643447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff0c…2560backed No7c1,272$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.64333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No64c1,216$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7737650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes29c1,048$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.285135.3%18 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes22c1,040$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.2227828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4302030%6 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No55c899.99$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.9954934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed No72c874$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.36728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick58cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes26c830.95$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.95616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c785$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.062939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c47…9b02backed Yes34c650$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes31c616.47$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.466920.3%14 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No2c567$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.344250%21 W · 21 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No4c562.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9617227.9%48 W · 124 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe991…9969backed Yes62c478.16$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.922445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1942…9066backed Yes28c476.89$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.36450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+51.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No3c469.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.84143.9%18 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No38c434.23$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.049627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed No47c422.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d48…6237backed Yes49c420$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.9728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes65c384.74$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.744740.4%19 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1908…9286backed Yes57c364.41$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No7c350$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255832.8%19 W · 39 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+75%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes38c324.63$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.531443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes23c304.35$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.3528434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes53c299.98$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.997345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25cb…14f0backed Yes35c285.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.812100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+355.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes21c267.31$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.7657636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c263.39$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.781,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes18c254.25$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.482634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1844…1d55backed No63c251.55$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.86450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1037944.3%35 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed No41c244.69$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.671957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4440…5f67backed Yes57c203.43$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.471233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed No67c200$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.128451.2%43 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed No17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+81.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5211435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked Yes57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.51250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No46c188$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.164850%24 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No36c178.13$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6626139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9699…231abacked Yes50c159.36$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe633…c0febacked Yes43c150$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No69c144.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.939659.4%57 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes39c140$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.44645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes43c126$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.361450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb288…fa0fbacked No44c114.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf636…b088backed No47c106.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No42c106.41$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.693148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes56c105$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.77317.8%13 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x38d5…063cbacked No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.32per pick54cpaid-68.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9317…508abacked Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes57c99.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4334726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No16c88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0856314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No55c86.76$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.62642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdad…e5bbbacked Yes58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.21520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-65.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes55c79.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.46622.7%15 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes40c73$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.587932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No37c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.919043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x531c…b3b9backed No44c68.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5326…f3efbacked Yes37c67.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.573100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+201.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes45c66.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70d8…fa21backed No45c66.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No79c58.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.161,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked No77c50.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.238861.4%54 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf70f…d753backed Yes79c43.84$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.351346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cbf…2bdebacked No47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c0…7e81backed Yes59c42.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+122.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed No35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-57%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x38f6…8812backed Yes29c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.614033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0347…cf3fbacked No45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2fb…5215backed No38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-39.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3adc…3335backed Yes35c36.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.57540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e0…61dbbacked No70c35.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8278…c94fbacked No46c32.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes65c27.12$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.49933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50b4…9428backed No63c23.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22f4…b633backed Yes58c20.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.49728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.