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F1 · resolved market

Will Max Verstappen finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
F1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,596
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,993

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,596 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in F1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e9b…6e75backed No67c5,399$3,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,801.451346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes33c5,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6505521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No27c2,889$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,118.1812353.7%66 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No79c2,433$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.41833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c82…4e09backed Yes48c2,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Yes45c1,836$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.366331.7%20 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a6…06afbacked No55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a8…1b38backed Yes58c1,674$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9636136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc20…f00dbacked Yes3c1,500$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ad…578fbacked No46c1,295$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.611428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5157…aa2cbacked Yes60c999.99$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick70cpaid-68.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes24c999.59$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.831822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fae…9b32backed No32c958.07$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+142%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2800…93e7backed Yes31c747.89$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.35425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+194.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes61c743.59$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.59616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.9wins-0.48per pick64cpaid-78.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes70c742.58$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd12…87a4backed Yes62c703.97$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.81425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9781…bc2abacked Yes70c700$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes16c684.07$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.431838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-16.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba73…ab9abacked No75c671.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.09933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-41.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd022…7b52backed No39c641.03$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a4…e9adbacked No39c504.09$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2926…2ab4backed Yes62c484.64$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-65.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes61c480.26$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.771729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5273…69f5backed Yes66c455.21$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002030%6 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8159…ed58backed Yes21c427.26$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No57c395.9$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.49757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick31cpaid+49.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7466…3f77backed Yes3c352.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0250%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes63c350.81$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.01540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-44.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b84…12febacked Yes70c350$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+55.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1919…351cbacked No21c318.41$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.56425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes12c300.21$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.03450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+48.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1654436.4%16 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa485…7b85backed Yes21c299.57$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.661136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3485…25d3backed Yes51c294.19$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eca…3a06backed No32c258.06$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.43467.6%23 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed No32c229.64$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+216.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes53c224.53$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1196732.8%22 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No23c223.91$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.745442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x612f…aa53backed No44c222.96$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.294047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-2.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes54c222$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.881258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1691…f06dbacked Yes39c210.35$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.361315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1285137.3%19 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes65c200$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12920843.3%90 W · 118 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a10…4253backed Yes24c195$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x995c…8770backed Yes71c193.77$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.522250%11 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b16…0dc4backed Yes56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed No54c175.03$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.641353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dbc…4e26backed Yes63c170.16$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9de2…c042backed Yes68c167.94$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0699…4731backed Yes51c165.31$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc6…6f23backed Yes73c162.04$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes45c144.83$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.463336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No31c142.6$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.623766.9%26 W · 350 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f6…037cbacked No28c142.55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.55666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+41.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5937…11dabacked No46c142.26$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.26850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x087a…8fc4backed No47c126.57$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x766b…3069backed Yes10c113.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4790…2dd7backed No46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.71172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+23.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba72…143bbacked Yes57c107.36$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.921625%4 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-39.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xde35…0239backed No46c101.22$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad6…9963backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed Yes37c97.72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.141947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid+31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed Yes54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-71.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7cc…644ebacked No20c89.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.894100%4 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+238.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes39c82.2$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.67837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad9…63d2backed Yes65c81.54$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked No46c81.43$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.973444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed No27c80.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2814429.9%43 W · 101 L+14.2wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+69.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8823…175cbacked Yes27c73.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-43.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bb…5b57backed Yes24c72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x467d…cc17backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x369b…5129backed Yes57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0176…454ebacked Yes23c66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x651e…6ab7backed No65c65.46$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4860…0a3dbacked Yes24c63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b40…edc5backed Yes23c62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e8d…5ab7backed No46c61.33$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fc0…d42fbacked Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38d6…d10abacked Yes54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2390…ed54backed No51c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd129…7487backed Yes58c59.27$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.64540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca3…b16cbacked Yes23c59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c5…9edbbacked Yes24c58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfd6…d50dbacked Yes28c54.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b29…5a9abacked Yes55c53.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6611860.2%71 W · 47 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c4c…f94fbacked Yes23c53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0742…2501backed Yes23c52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f0…3428backed Yes58c51.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e0c…0c4bbacked Yes23c51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa54…30b8backed Yes61c51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59e4…c67bbacked No69c50.89$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.891154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe336…4713backed No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4122…5c11backed Yes63c49.79$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No74c49.61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.144353.5%23 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc2…c208backed Yes24c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11df…51f3backed Yes24c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa391…27a1backed Yes24c47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…4b6fbacked Yes60c46.66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79e6…8336backed Yes64c46.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick55cpaid-48.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.