F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae99d24e79cde300a306807efc7750148dc959931073a1895db38916a6ec0165
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 5c | 2,853$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.58 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 5c | 1,515$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,297$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 11c | 733.88$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…d0a8backed Yes | 23c | 254.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3730…ec3abacked Yes | 46c | 241.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…4b8bbacked Yes | 23c | 220.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 10c | 201.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f694backed Yes | 16c | 147.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…984bbacked Yes | 9c | 132$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…7202backed Yes | 24c | 125.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x376b…aa16backed Yes | 21c | 118.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…df92backed Yes | 23c | 110.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…c9f1backed Yes | 39c | 102.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 16c | 75.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…6130backed Yes | 21c | 71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fae…9b32backed Yes | 24c | 62.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +142%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…e8d5backed Yes | 46c | 54.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3316…1bc4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 80c | 47.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 43.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…040cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…4e09backed No | 79c | 29.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47df…b805backed Yes | 58c | 24.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?No won
- Will George Russell finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?No won
- Will Max Verstappen finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?Yes won
- Will any other driver finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.