Ukraine · resolved market
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf876043780c7ce1b05d598b607260ab210abbdddbb5c615ad8163516118617b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $422,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $440,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $422,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes | 6c | 93,316$5,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,822.16 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 59c | 18,215$10,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,813.15 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 69c | 9,984$6,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,135.1 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b1…bc54backed No | 45c | 9,638$4,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,330.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952a…5c79backed Yes | 14c | 7,118$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa699…785fbacked Yes | 37c | 6,918$2,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,542.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed No | 78c | 6,687$5,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…32b8backed Yes | 44c | 5,571$2,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,439.16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 33c | 4,924$1,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.81 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 74c | 4,786$3,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.97 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 10c | 4,500$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 80c | 4,000$3,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.16 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 2c | 3,840$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…7977backed Yes | 7c | 3,702$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 13c | 3,443$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.84 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked Yes | 21c | 3,405$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 13c | 3,396$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.93 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 78c | 3,356$2,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 73c | 3,172$2,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.32 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 75c | 3,061$2,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.99 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 19c | 3,018$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.27 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 7c | 2,900$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.17 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 2,846$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.31 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 2,808$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 11c | 2,711$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 34c | 2,647$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.05 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…df91backed No | 59c | 2,489$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,478$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.09 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,141$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…e2a9backed Yes | 20c | 2,108$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ee…4973backed No | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 32c | 2,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.52 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 1c | 1,823$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 27c | 1,666$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.32 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 37cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…0242backed Yes | 32c | 1,584$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 66c | 1,496$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.99 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 73c | 1,489$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…f962backed No | 68c | 1,480$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c4…97c9backed Yes | 14c | 1,476$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 4c | 1,453$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed Yes | 21c | 1,450$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.75 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d4…d989backed Yes | 9c | 1,429$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd7…9ae1backed No | 79c | 1,402$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 27c | 1,370$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.71 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 53c | 1,360$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.87 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 21c | 1,346$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.13 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 38c | 1,323$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.75 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7a…5015backed Yes | 4c | 1,229$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,227$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,187$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.35 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed Yes | 18c | 1,176$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.98 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked No | 79c | 1,166$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cd…113cbacked No | 79c | 1,148$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 57c | 1,081$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.8 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 19c | 1,064$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.84 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +6.5wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed No | 72c | 1,047$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.28 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,027$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…cd6dbacked No | 41c | 1,025$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…1252backed No | 79c | 1,013$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…a292backed Yes | 25c | 1,008$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 11c | 1,007$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,005$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.28 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked No | 69c | 999.99$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked No | 78c | 999.99$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 21c | 999.36$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.1 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…955cbacked Yes | 26c | 993.76$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7b42backed No | 76c | 975.75$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 67c | 971.18$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.49 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 73c | 944.81$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.02 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 66c | 915.1$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6343…bf0abacked Yes | 54c | 904.76$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.13 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1ebabacked No | 69c | 895.64$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb2…45b3backed No | 72c | 770.03$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 2c | 758.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked Yes | 3c | 730$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 2c | 709.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 13c | 699.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7a7dbacked No | 80c | 658.88$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d4…69efbacked Yes | 15c | 650$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed Yes | 25c | 644.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefd…abf6backed Yes | 32c | 628.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc87f…fb1fbacked Yes | 4c | 603.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -81%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 55c | 560$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.17 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…1c1dbacked Yes | 13c | 552.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 27c | 508.25$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…c9c3backed No | 68c | 480.89$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.62 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 22c | 480$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc0…ef21backed Yes | 3c | 447.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed No | 67c | 447.03$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 65c | 445.39$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.3 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ded…e4c9backed No | 66c | 441.9$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…b9cdbacked Yes | 47c | 428.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc71…eb87backed No | 74c | 403.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…283bbacked No | 47c | 400.27$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.84 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c40…66a4backed No | 37c | 400.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.