Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fec9ca2aa8d7972511c94d28a45953966259599901bf9fe35988a0a5c1a3cb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $719,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $672,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $719,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 303 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96ef…5523backed No | 11c | 27,885$3,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,036.82 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 7c | 21,921$1,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.36 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2570…f79cbacked No | 10c | 16,581$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e2…1a7cbacked No | 5c | 11,700$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +268%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 10,700$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa757…f01fbacked No | 8c | 10,594$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.53 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 10,359$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked No | 2c | 10,000$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.78 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 9c | 9,789$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.59 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 7c | 8,606$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.61 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed No | 11c | 8,219$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.7 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…e2b8backed No | 11c | 8,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 11c | 7,722$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 7c | 7,375$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.55 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked No | 5c | 6,773$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 4c | 6,205$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.13 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 10c | 6,144$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.89 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…ac60backed No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…385bbacked No | 10c | 5,803$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.71 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 7c | 5,454$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.11 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454e…36cbbacked No | 2c | 5,300$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…70bdbacked No | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 10c | 4,980$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.82 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…ea15backed No | 10c | 4,783$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.36 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…7887backed No | 11c | 4,407$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 4,370$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.3 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 14c | 4,119$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.82 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6f…0e5fbacked No | 6c | 4,000$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 9c | 3,808$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.39 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked No | 7c | 3,698$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.58 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked No | 14c | 3,441$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.51 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…389ebacked No | 14c | 3,384$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked No | 12c | 3,280$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.62 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 4c | 3,145$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad82…1075backed No | 7c | 3,138$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 20c | 3,118$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.72 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…bfa2backed No | 7c | 3,073$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…4605backed No | 14c | 3,000$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…03e6backed No | 9c | 3,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…d48bbacked Yes | 79c | 2,974$2,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.89 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…9c3abacked No | 11c | 2,949$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605f…6b3fbacked No | 7c | 2,866$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d83…f6d5backed No | 20c | 2,762$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +1,487.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…40e3backed No | 19c | 2,730$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 13c | 2,700$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 13c | 2,587$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.05 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 9c | 2,540$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.34 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked No | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…589cbacked No | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 2c | 2,496$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf90f…70c2backed No | 10c | 2,330$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed No | 23c | 2,117$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.92 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…c2b4backed No | 4c | 2,115$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6300backed No | 10c | 2,087$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed No | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…c27cbacked No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 8c | 2,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…89b4backed No | 14c | 1,966$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.75 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 13c | 1,956$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 4c | 1,937$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked No | 74c | 1,895$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…c7cdbacked No | 11c | 1,874$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…04adbacked No | 8c | 1,850$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799f…83e2backed No | 6c | 1,833$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e9…6f8fbacked No | 11c | 1,768$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.07 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,700$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc86…e717backed No | 12c | 1,638$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 8c | 1,637$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.31 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c9…7e55backed No | 9c | 1,607$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 8c | 1,600$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked No | 6c | 1,600$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed No | 13c | 1,592$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +688.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…7fc8backed No | 8c | 1,517$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.91 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 4c | 1,354$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 10c | 1,335$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…2acfbacked No | 5c | 1,302$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked No | 14c | 1,292$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.26 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb93…d52abacked No | 7c | 1,224$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 8c | 1,200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…d06fbacked No | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed No | 8c | 1,182$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked No | 8c | 1,180$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed No | 13c | 1,160$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.1 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 15c | 1,129$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.33 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 4c | 1,124$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 5c | 1,111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed No | 16c | 1,073$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.88 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b3e5backed No | 19c | 1,060$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked No | 13c | 1,035$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.21 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 3c | 1,016$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…7d7fbacked No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…3d81backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -8.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fd…3348backed No | 18c | 999.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…12e4backed No | 12c | 999.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 9c | 999.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked No | 15c | 995.39$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?this page
- US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?No won
- US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran meeting by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.