TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$719,631
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$672,778

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $719,631 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 303 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x96ef…5523backed No11c27,885$3,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,036.8211842.4%50 W · 68 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No7c21,921$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.3622627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2570…f79cbacked No10c16,581$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.79520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92e2…1a7cbacked No5c11,700$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6021741.2%7 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick21cpaid+268%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No1c10,700$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.32742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa757…f01fbacked No8c10,594$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.531942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick28cpaid-5.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c10,359$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.765071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbc…f38bbacked No2c10,000$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.781811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-53.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked No9c9,789$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.5914944.3%66 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No7c8,606$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.6112138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3096…58a3backed No11c8,219$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.78142%34 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…e2b8backed No11c8,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.981442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+46.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No11c7,722$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84817755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No7c7,375$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.5531241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb74…997cbacked No5c6,773$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.28812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-80.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No4c6,205$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.133103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No10c6,144$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.8935631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9783…ac60backed No0c6,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-57.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9945…385bbacked No10c5,803$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.712755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed No7c5,454$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.118616.3%14 W · 72 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x454e…36cbbacked No2c5,300$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x682e…70bdbacked No2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003745.9%17 W · 20 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+26.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No10c4,980$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.8217737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a3…ea15backed No10c4,783$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.362445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd7…7887backed No11c4,407$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c4,370$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.37135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked No14c4,119$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.8221525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6f…0e5fbacked No6c4,000$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2484141.5%17 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+88.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No9c3,808$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.3916231.5%51 W · 111 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x449c…879ebacked No7c3,698$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.5813650%68 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked No14c3,441$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.517929.1%23 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817a…389ebacked No14c3,384$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.9520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-43.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ee…008cbacked No12c3,280$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.6210023%23 W · 77 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No4c3,145$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.0827047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad82…1075backed No7c3,138$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.25425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed No20c3,118$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.722857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…bfa2backed No7c3,073$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…4605backed No14c3,000$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9360…03e6backed No9c3,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.993351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fda…d48bbacked Yes79c2,974$2,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.89785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick76cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c99…9c3abacked No11c2,949$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x605f…6b3fbacked No7c2,866$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d83…f6d5backed No20c2,762$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+1,487.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea6…40e3backed No19c2,730$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5102128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+85.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed No13c2,700$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3517548%36 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No13c2,587$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.05649.4%6 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed No9c2,540$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.348939.3%35 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked No10c2,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010240.2%41 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad26…589cbacked No12c2,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No2c2,496$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5235819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf90f…70c2backed No10c2,330$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d7…11b2backed No23c2,117$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.926535.4%23 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cb4…c2b4backed No4c2,115$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6300backed No10c2,087$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-43.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed No8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1608125.9%21 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6056…c27cbacked No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No8c2,000$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15248630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c7…89b4backed No14c1,966$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.752040%8 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No13c1,956$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26410528.6%30 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No4c1,937$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9748923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff0c…36eebacked No74c1,895$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.3742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42f9…c7cdbacked No11c1,874$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+78.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd857…04adbacked No8c1,850$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1481827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x799f…83e2backed No6c1,833$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e9…6f8fbacked No11c1,768$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.071421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No3c1,700$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1642311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc86…e717backed No12c1,638$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-69.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No8c1,637$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.311199.2%11 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88c9…7e55backed No9c1,607$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-80.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked No8c1,600$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13017934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x416e…a47fbacked No6c1,600$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+85.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed No13c1,592$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.04475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+688.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8b6…7fc8backed No8c1,517$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.911010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-83.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No1c1,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8721831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No4c1,354$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.192036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed No10c1,335$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13015953.5%85 W · 74 L+16.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0eb6…2acfbacked No5c1,302$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0960%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2db7…8f9bbacked No14c1,292$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.266339.7%25 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb93…d52abacked No7c1,224$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No8c1,200$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9320035.5%71 W · 129 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9010…d06fbacked No16c1,200$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1926625.8%17 W · 49 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed No8c1,182$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9413532.6%44 W · 91 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6c5…6f9cbacked No8c1,180$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005825.9%15 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.10per pick16cpaid+121.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5973…5e13backed No13c1,160$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.19116.5%15 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked No15c1,129$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.3310945.9%50 W · 59 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No4c1,124$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1815436.4%56 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No5c1,111$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5544224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58ce…57c4backed No16c1,073$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.886934.8%24 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb51f…b3e5backed No19c1,060$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked No13c1,035$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.216045%27 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No3c1,016$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6311818.6%22 W · 96 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18016541.2%68 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb2…7d7fbacked No8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59bc…3d81backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504515.6%7 W · 38 L-8.6wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-75.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.574748.9%23 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+46.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5fd…3348backed No18c999.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed No16c999.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd30f…12e4backed No12c999.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No9c999.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9022333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70ef…e25dbacked No15c995.39$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1483240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.