Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x782435a867a3a6fb0a93c9f4b8f5f6ca527ea08e69a5b584301a206cc3642215
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $245,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 14c | 6,957$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.12 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Yes | 15c | 6,500$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 13c | 5,498$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…23e5backed Yes | 3c | 5,411$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd5…481fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,222$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a119backed Yes | 3c | 4,860$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b2…3742backed Yes | 3c | 4,755$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 9c | 4,324$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.15 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…c03ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,822$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 8c | 3,420$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.44 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…6434backed Yes | 4c | 2,722$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 18c | 2,592$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.51 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…6de0backed Yes | 3c | 2,556$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…7aa4backed Yes | 3c | 2,443$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b18ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,300$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x572b…f1a0backed Yes | 3c | 2,125$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…72b5backed Yes | 4c | 2,100$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 16c | 2,002$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.5 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,987$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cf…acd0backed Yes | 4c | 1,965$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x852e…d026backed Yes | 2c | 1,830$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…b1c8backed Yes | 16c | 1,824$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 1,800$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a89…78aabacked Yes | 2c | 1,790$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af8…a6a7backed Yes | 3c | 1,772$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf96…81e4backed Yes | 4c | 1,701$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 16c | 1,544$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.64 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5a…2afdbacked Yes | 17c | 1,400$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 17c | 1,386$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.95 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed No | 75c | 1,341$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.81 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,226$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…83c1backed Yes | 4c | 1,178$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6493…414abacked Yes | 3c | 1,103$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,069$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c01…0436backed Yes | 3c | 1,036$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 18c | 974.68$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.65 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…1fb6backed Yes | 21c | 933.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…a4f9backed Yes | 16c | 798.08$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.83 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 21c | 703.07$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.61 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2931…edc0backed Yes | 5c | 699.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0adc…c214backed Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed Yes | 5c | 631.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes | 23c | 609.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.9 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…2b64backed Yes | 4c | 606.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 581.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…457bbacked No | 76c | 522.96$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 19c | 505$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.45 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 496.93$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 473.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 3c | 456.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 78c | 449.73$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 18c | 411.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…de12backed Yes | 30c | 411.35$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.01 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 9c | 408.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 12c | 391.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…94ebbacked Yes | 21c | 376.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes | 27c | 370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 7c | 363.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 356.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…5c33backed Yes | 4c | 348.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 21c | 345$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 8c | 337.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…45dcbacked Yes | 33c | 317.38$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…dd14backed Yes | 37c | 305.53$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…3a52backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73bc…335fbacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…00c8backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 8c | 289.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…fdd3backed Yes | 24c | 284.76$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 11c | 275.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…5864backed Yes | 21c | 270$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 4c | 262.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 253.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 5c | 234.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…c232backed Yes | 53c | 230.77$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 21c | 222.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a7…4bdcbacked Yes | 13c | 222.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 17c | 211.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…b75bbacked Yes | 25c | 203.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0e…2baebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…0cc0backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 22c | 195.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 18c | 193.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…7feabacked Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 187.08$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 19c | 178.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5bacbacked Yes | 31c | 157.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb067…5081backed Yes | 13c | 157.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 70c | 157.03$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 15c | 156$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 19c | 152.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 146.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 18c | 137.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 77c | 136.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…baa8backed No | 75c | 135.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 9c | 133.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026?this page
- US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?No won
- US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran meeting by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.