TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$245,591
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$224,136

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,591 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes14c6,957$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.1217018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Yes15c6,500$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb157…f7cebacked Yes13c5,498$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7024022.5%9 W · 31 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+91.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9fa…23e5backed Yes3c5,411$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dd5…481fbacked Yes2c5,222$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c42…a119backed Yes3c4,860$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6b2…3742backed Yes3c4,755$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes9c4,324$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.15649.4%6 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9c0…c03ebacked Yes4c3,822$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes8c3,420$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.4414039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2398…6434backed Yes4c2,722$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes18c2,592$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.5123839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf750…6de0backed Yes3c2,556$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…7aa4backed Yes3c2,443$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f16…b18ebacked Yes9c2,300$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.42133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x572b…f1a0backed Yes3c2,125$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22af…72b5backed Yes4c2,100$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270d…5ff2backed Yes16c2,002$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.56722.4%15 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes3c1,987$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.373588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56cf…acd0backed Yes4c1,965$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x852e…d026backed Yes2c1,830$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6195…b1c8backed Yes16c1,824$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes3c1,800$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.93717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a89…78aabacked Yes2c1,790$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2af8…a6a7backed Yes3c1,772$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf96…81e4backed Yes4c1,701$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes16c1,544$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.6429129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e5a…2afdbacked Yes17c1,400$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes17c1,386$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9548630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc6d…9f36backed No75c1,341$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.814643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c1,226$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.024769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e59…83c1backed Yes4c1,178$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6493…414abacked Yes3c1,103$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c1,069$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.747135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c01…0436backed Yes3c1,036$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.03933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2a8…8466backed Yes3c1,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263016.7%5 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes18c974.68$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.6529027.9%81 W · 209 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…1fb6backed Yes21c933.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004515.6%7 W · 38 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5428…a4f9backed Yes16c798.08$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.832123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc004…c095backed Yes21c703.07$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.613444.1%15 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2931…edc0backed Yes5c699.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3280%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0adc…c214backed Yes3c689.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7525…cde1backed Yes5c631.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.444537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes23c609.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.96636.4%24 W · 42 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72bd…2b64backed Yes4c606.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-67.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c581.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.152438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ad…457bbacked No76c522.96$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.941250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb376…3ecebacked Yes19c505$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.451414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-75.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516225.9%42 W · 120 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c496.93$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c473.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.021245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes3c456.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No78c449.73$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.246540%26 W · 39 L-10.4wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-31.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes18c411.78$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8440433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e6c…de12backed Yes30c411.35$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.011136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes9c408.89$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6912223%28 W · 94 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked Yes12c391.62$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0312740.9%52 W · 75 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbace…94ebbacked Yes21c376.93$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes27c370$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.94825%12 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+187.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes7c363.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.533721.6%8 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes3c356.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbadb…5c33backed Yes4c348.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-64.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes21c345$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.772222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-49.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes8c337.07$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9728827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…45dcbacked Yes33c317.38$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.29633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-52.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89f2…dd14backed Yes37c305.53$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1131010%1 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-80.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b0b…3a52backed Yes16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd210…92dfbacked Yes19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73bc…335fbacked No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602962.1%18 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4992…00c8backed Yes32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes8c289.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0850130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc21d…fdd3backed Yes24c284.76$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.99933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7356…0b03backed Yes11c275.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307225%18 W · 54 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86eb…5864backed Yes21c270$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-61.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes4c262.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.894953.1%26 W · 23 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes12c253.58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.794136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes5c234.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114124.4%10 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdaee…c232backed Yes53c230.77$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+49.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9008…f3cebacked Yes21c222.84$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.15850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+32.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53a7…4bdcbacked Yes13c222.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x450e…80aebacked Yes17c211.93$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.712830.5%39 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b44…b75bbacked Yes25c203.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-58.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0e…2baebacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3212…0cc0backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011357.5%65 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes22c195.51$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3632345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes18c193.03$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8256336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x04a3…7feabacked Yes21c190.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405832.8%19 W · 39 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No66c187.08$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6134234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes19c178.44$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.145040%20 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5bacbacked Yes31c157.43$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492910.3%3 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-59.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb067…5081backed Yes13c157.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No70c157.03$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0313246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes15c156$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.42339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes19c152.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5213918.7%26 W · 113 L-13.9wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-52.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes29c146.83$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.011,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes18c137.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4113228%37 W · 95 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No77c136.68$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4438247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x88f3…baa8backed No75c135.5$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.331136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes9c133.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1731728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.