TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6e91…134e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
19
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
0

Best Category: Weather, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 54 out of 100; worst Lol at 51.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or higher on April 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.25
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$9
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,285Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,285
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$845Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$455
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,993Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,993
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,924Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$676
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16,170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$16,170
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,920Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+733.3%+$14,080
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10,800Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+150%+$16,200
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$65
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$7,702Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+88.3%+$6,798.6
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$10,220Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+37%+$3,780
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$600
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+203%+$670
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$5,570Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+79.5%+$4,430
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSIbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.