Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd873372ee122726a9a2e1a4221faf3e8d0716c052bdd7053fd1990f167ed1e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e91…134ebacked Yes | 57c | 3,500$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc6…e280backed No | 43c | 3,500$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.54 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c6…4dc1backed Yes | 1c | 2,802$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 1,141$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 2c | 1,123$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 464.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 325.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed No | 59c | 299.98$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.99 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 10c | 269.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed No | 71c | 229.21$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 212.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 58c | 204.12$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 34c | 124.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 61c | 119.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 112.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b39…eae4backed No | 62c | 104.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 66c | 91.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 64c | 85.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 65c | 77.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Yes | 41c | 70.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…c055backed Yes | 43c | 70.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 62.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 61c | 62.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 70c | 58.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 41c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 35c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 38c | 43.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 42.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 41c | 40.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 80c | 35.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 45c | 33.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 43c | 33.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…b844backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 59c | 29.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…fddebacked Yes | 66c | 22.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or higher on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.