Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9071bfd244c50faa57effad7cd7026341b4ee1733669c66f0595a5506a38efc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e91…134ebacked No | 53c | 14,500$7,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,798.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc6…e280backed Yes | 47c | 14,500$6,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,813.09 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 41c | 1,893$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.42 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 2c | 1,371$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 999.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 54c | 564.13$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.72 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 460.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01b…1c2ebacked Yes | 3c | 419.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 36c | 405.86$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.46 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 16c | 363.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 65c | 359.68$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.38 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 18c | 325.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 39c | 318.29$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.05 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 12c | 304.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 35c | 300$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ad…8851backed Yes | 45c | 290.78$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…c588backed No | 73c | 278.66$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed No | 56c | 266.72$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 69c | 259.44$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.53 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 14c | 250.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 246$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 223.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 42c | 211.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4d…c717backed Yes | 11c | 191.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 71c | 191.12$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 47c | 173.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 44c | 170$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 154.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 147.38$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 16c | 143.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 39c | 137.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 12c | 132.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 127.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 42c | 122.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 55c | 118.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 34c | 115.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7b…4a3ebacked Yes | 45c | 110.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…661dbacked Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 16c | 96.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed No | 74c | 86.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 64c | 77.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked No | 51c | 74.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 44c | 67.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 16c | 67.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 25c | 67.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 56c | 63.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 59c | 62.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 54c | 60.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 55c | 55.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 38c | 54.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed No | 59c | 53.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 52.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 51.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 46.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes | 41c | 43.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 54c | 43.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed Yes | 35c | 41.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 40.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 60c | 38.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…4092backed Yes | 48c | 37.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 68c | 36.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…a5f0backed Yes | 38c | 35.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5c…b50fbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 37c | 34.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f9…a6ecbacked No | 59c | 33.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 45c | 33.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 66c | 32.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…d453backed No | 61c | 32.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…ae79backed No | 68c | 32.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 65c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e0…b5ccbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…bc71backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff50…b446backed Yes | 43c | 29.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes | 43c | 27.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…a85dbacked No | 58c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked No | 52c | 25.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 61c | 24.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.