Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f54a29a8e386bead6249d2165a6a220f8cfd883a7f3e800ad2fee4b55567783
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 73c | 2,008$1,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.75 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 71c | 1,419$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.32 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 37c | 921.57$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.44 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 40c | 708.76$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.78 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 41c | 674.99$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.28 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 30c | 653.77$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.51 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 74c | 583.72$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.68 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 15c | 522.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 27c | 456$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.18 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b41…df0bbacked Yes | 36c | 389.73$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 25c | 347.77$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.24 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 31c | 344.12$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.11 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 10c | 340$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 70c | 316.33$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.93 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 312.77$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 18c | 306.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.44 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 18c | 280.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.36 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 260.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 47c | 256.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.6 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 46c | 244.33$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.94 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8a…0a58backed Yes | 45c | 222.38$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 25c | 201.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.93 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 41c | 201$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 67c | 199.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 42c | 198.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.51 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 69c | 195.42$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.56 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 23c | 187.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.86 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 26c | 186.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.81 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 28c | 177.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.39 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 173.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…4092backed Yes | 21c | 170$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.8 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 32c | 169.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 154.05$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 32c | 151.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.28 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb8…f592backed Yes | 33c | 144.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…880abacked Yes | 43c | 125.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…4cccbacked Yes | 44c | 122.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 112.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 21c | 112.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 40c | 111.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c10…aa68backed Yes | 46c | 105.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 19c | 104.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc6…1a3ebacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 103.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…b2ebbacked Yes | 40c | 100.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 39c | 98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…daadbacked No | 78c | 97$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 72c | 90$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 21c | 87.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 41c | 85.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 65c | 84.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 84.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…ce38backed Yes | 40c | 84.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 29c | 83.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 71c | 75.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed No | 67c | 72.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 47c | 67.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 64.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 64c | 61.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 61.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked Yes | 80c | 61.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…71cfbacked Yes | 26c | 60.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 67c | 55.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 62c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 27c | 54.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 69c | 52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 62c | 51.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf011…eb29backed Yes | 30c | 49.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 23c | 49.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 61c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…2d60backed Yes | 35c | 45.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…23cabacked Yes | 71c | 45.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 55c | 45.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 25c | 44.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4498…c984backed No | 56c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…eb70backed Yes | 39c | 41.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 79c | 41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…5484backed Yes | 37c | 39.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…a70bbacked Yes | 48c | 39.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f80…d256backed Yes | 27c | 37.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +157.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddd4…2ee3backed No | 75c | 35.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf724…c178backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 35c | 34.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 71c | 33.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…ab61backed No | 34c | 32.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…722cbacked Yes | 43c | 30.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.