Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4436e8ecd35977550c71d4664a553a564754988b6ed2e5ec183cf535da06f358
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 0c | 11,720$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 37c | 5,798$2,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148.29 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 54c | 2,545$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.17 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,531$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 34c | 1,862$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.94 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 3c | 1,548$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 20c | 1,169$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.52 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 28c | 1,100$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.09 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 9c | 710.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.6 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 704.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 664.05$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.85 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 12c | 570.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 65c | 502.63$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.19 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 383.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 32c | 359.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.68 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 64c | 314.79$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.58 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 278.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed Yes | 9c | 277.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 253.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 15c | 248.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 25c | 211.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.64 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 183.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 20c | 179.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 6c | 166.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…3851backed Yes | 8c | 163.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 17c | 161.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 22c | 158.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed No | 28c | 154.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.93 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed Yes | 13c | 149$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 71c | 147.03$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.33 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 136.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 67c | 119.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 43c | 115$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…3e65backed Yes | 11c | 113.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…23cabacked Yes | 64c | 108.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…d8d3backed No | 41c | 99.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 68c | 94.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed No | 24c | 80.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…5936backed Yes | 75c | 77.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 66c | 76.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked Yes | 71c | 72.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 79c | 69.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 34c | 65.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…c029backed Yes | 24c | 56.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 39c | 50.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 71c | 46.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…fdbabacked Yes | 75c | 42.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 65c | 39.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed Yes | 76c | 39.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 35c | 34.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 60c | 33.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 67c | 33.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 57c | 31.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 74c | 30.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…e1bbbacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.