Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x050e38cf526c6f57c38bef2cc72c007b4174ceb3437ef28333f55132e1d42b79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,181 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x360f…e6e1backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 23c | 1,108$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.01 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 75c | 1,007$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.26 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 78c | 528.28$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.28 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 19c | 508.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 59c | 359.24$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.66 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 25c | 348.16$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 35c | 317.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 266.36$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 57c | 260$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 205.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.46 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 66c | 202.96$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 18c | 170$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 80c | 160.21$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 14c | 156.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 148.85$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.11 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 28c | 143.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 141.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 136.83$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 67c | 134.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 78c | 127.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 120.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 29c | 119.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 64c | 114.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 25c | 111.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 66c | 105.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 104.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 27c | 100.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…ae0bbacked Yes | 32c | 94.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 35c | 93.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 93.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 88.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 48c | 87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 78c | 85.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 80.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 31c | 73.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b30…d326backed Yes | 22c | 68.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184a…bd44backed Yes | 30c | 66.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…134ebacked No | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc6…e280backed Yes | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 59c | 62.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…9a76backed Yes | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 38c | 57.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 32c | 52.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 26c | 46.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 35c | 41.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 74c | 39.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 51c | 39.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 68c | 33.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 72c | 32.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 52c | 31.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…1223backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1879…b287backed No | 40c | 28.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 69c | 25.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…2efbbacked Yes | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 74c | 16.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108b…56b3backed Yes | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked Yes | 71c | 14.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.