Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08f53882856715ca923cb17756da8785cbbf16ae4ba456034f758e8ef71f10ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,792 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 13c | 621.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 296.22$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 23c | 284.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 14c | 268.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 243.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 66c | 227.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 23c | 207.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 180.27$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 23c | 166.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 161.48$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4805…4890backed Yes | 36c | 149.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 140.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 137.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 9c | 129.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 34c | 127.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 124.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 120.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 15c | 108.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 26c | 107$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 33c | 100.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 93.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 88.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 18c | 83.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 22c | 77.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 36c | 75.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 27c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de1…7cf6backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…aba8backed Yes | 30c | 67.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 75c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…640abacked Yes | 35c | 57.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 52.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 27c | 51.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 75c | 43.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 37.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…6e73backed No | 79c | 36.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7759…0487backed No | 69c | 36.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…52cfbacked Yes | 34c | 33.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed Yes | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb46a…47a1backed No | 69c | 26.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…8d09backed No | 74c | 25.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 74c | 24.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 21.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked No | 67c | 21.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 70c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd865…4778backed No | 75c | 20.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…f41bbacked No | 79c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.