Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or higher on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ac6f3a3b7f5127dce0dbcb8159160ed06516bace45b562180f53c742f891fbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e91…134ebacked Yes | 1c | 28,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…dec2backed Yes | 0c | 18,908$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd375…af86backed Yes | 0c | 13,506$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…bc37backed Yes | 0c | 6,303$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc6…e280backed Yes | 1c | 5,223$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…b9a3backed Yes | 1c | 4,683$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed Yes | 1c | 4,503$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…3e02backed Yes | 0c | 3,006$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…5bb3backed Yes | 2c | 930$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 6c | 704.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 437.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 8c | 416.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 9c | 306.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…c73abacked Yes | 33c | 283.94$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 237.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 11c | 214.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 159.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 120.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 27c | 118.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 40c | 117.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc273…51eabacked Yes | 9c | 116.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed No | 79c | 111.41$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 20c | 89.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 19c | 75.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 16c | 70.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 33c | 64.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 29c | 58.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 25c | 56.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked Yes | 20c | 53.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 53.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed No | 61c | 52.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…cb42backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed No | 80c | 49.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 30c | 41.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 43c | 32.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc34…7a6bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…9d34backed No | 75c | 29.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 60c | 27.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 76c | 25.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 69c | 24.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 71c | 23.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed No | 78c | 17.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed No | 71c | 17.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or higher on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.