Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d6894113e59db790c6217f4f18f251760cf1503cd3985f01f8b0736aa2c80bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,453 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2bc6…e280backed No | 43c | 7,800$3,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,380 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…6757backed Yes | 55c | 6,500$3,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,925 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 2,319$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…fe84backed Yes | 71c | 1,722$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 1c | 1,645$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 1c | 1,400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…134ebacked Yes | 65c | 1,300$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…976abacked Yes | 73c | 1,144$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a0a4backed Yes | 52c | 1,071$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 34c | 1,007$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.75 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 48c | 909.51$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.99 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 9c | 885.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.81 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 61c | 738.01$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.64 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 37c | 730.97$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.47 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 35c | 682.31$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.46 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 27c | 674.98$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.89 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 53c | 653.09$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.38 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 38c | 642.44$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.3 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 36c | 612.72$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.86 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed Yes | 78c | 592.17$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.21 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…c1a4backed Yes | 76c | 583.06$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 43c | 570.09$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 20c | 539.64$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 22cpaid | +194.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 50c | 484.54$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.53 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 64c | 476.15$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.59 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 39c | 450$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 30c | 437.42$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.03 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…cf12backed No | 14c | 417.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 56c | 388.17$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.88 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 55c | 358.47$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.63 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 61c | 355.56$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.85 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf87…1949backed Yes | 71c | 352.59$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 42c | 347.86$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.45 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 29c | 345.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1162…15f3backed No | 43c | 336.89$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 325.01$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 322$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.19 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…7888backed Yes | 51c | 300.03$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf278…a69dbacked Yes | 47c | 287.92$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 7c | 285$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.05 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…c00fbacked Yes | 67c | 281.47$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…a924backed Yes | 72c | 276.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 63c | 276.07$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 49c | 275$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.35 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 39c | 264.38$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 62c | 242.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 64c | 214.88$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63eb…b247backed Yes | 54c | 210.03$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 60c | 209.83$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 35c | 207.89$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 78c | 207.55$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.22 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…4c27backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3f…5e3abacked Yes | 65c | 199.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 52c | 197.19$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 196.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 72c | 194.69$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 190.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 190.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…6b95backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…aa26backed Yes | 78c | 179.27$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 7c | 178$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.54 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…e984backed Yes | 35c | 172.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 34c | 170.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 24c | 162.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed No | 57c | 160$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efa…cb31backed Yes | 47c | 158.95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 64c | 156.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 44c | 156$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 64c | 153$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…0b94backed Yes | 55c | 150$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…e741backed Yes | 68c | 146.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5d…11d5backed Yes | 57c | 146.15$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 55c | 144.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 67c | 144.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x650b…d118backed Yes | 59c | 143.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 71c | 138.38$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 43c | 137.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…3387backed Yes | 34c | 131$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…e34bbacked No | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 46c | 124.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed Yes | 52c | 124.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…da74backed Yes | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 18c | 120$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 21c | 118.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 33c | 114.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 56c | 113.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 62c | 113$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 36c | 110.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…21cbbacked Yes | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 67c | 109.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…ae15backed Yes | 71c | 109.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101b…ea62backed Yes | 47c | 108$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 104.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 53c | 100.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…2c34backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 5°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 7°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.