Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebb33f3bf385b46612a68f9e7133f42ef3d550bc542104ffdf971a7ec51961dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,509 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa816…58bdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,167$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 2,316$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 12c | 1,717$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.74 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaf…58e8backed No | 71c | 1,378$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 73cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 1,351$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.44 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…4936backed Yes | 20c | 1,288$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…5281backed Yes | 32c | 1,161$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 4c | 1,103$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,010$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.44 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 29c | 1,003$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.93 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac32…e000backed Yes | 4c | 871.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 25c | 810.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 5c | 722.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 11c | 699.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 31c | 665.77$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.65 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…8e64backed Yes | 7c | 660$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 9c | 649.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 15c | 623.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 20c | 606.17$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.83 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 597.43$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 7c | 576.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed No | 77c | 566.47$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.59 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 22c | 565.51$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…6b95backed Yes | 29c | 511.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 511.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b9…c30abacked No | 77c | 491.42$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 464$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…1b56backed Yes | 13c | 444.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +268.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 435.67$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.84 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 12c | 409.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 20c | 385.66$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed No | 73c | 383.33$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 359.63$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.85 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 355.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…907dbacked Yes | 23c | 354.59$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 28c | 346.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 63c | 333.93$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.21 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 24c | 326.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 19c | 325$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked No | 64c | 315.97$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.63 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 32c | 315.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 13c | 310.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…5b4abacked Yes | 8c | 310$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…6badbacked Yes | 39c | 307.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 305.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…63d2backed Yes | 9c | 301.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 291.58$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a0a4backed Yes | 36c | 286.42$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 23c | 275.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 275$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 62c | 272.39$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 11c | 268.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…3d64backed No | 59c | 261$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.32 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 33c | 255.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…da8bbacked Yes | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e5…3263backed Yes | 19c | 249.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 35c | 249.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 243.83$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 6c | 240$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 227.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked No | 78c | 220$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 215.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63eb…b247backed Yes | 30c | 212.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 65c | 211.28$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 31c | 210$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729b…2b90backed Yes | 18c | 208.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…7888backed Yes | 31c | 208.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…88edbacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…2c34backed Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbc…0083backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…4c27backed Yes | 26c | 199.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 60c | 199.31$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3c…e044backed Yes | 30c | 199.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7c…901dbacked No | 76c | 197.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 14c | 185.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 22c | 183.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 21c | 178.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 34c | 173.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…2aedbacked Yes | 39c | 172.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…61c2backed No | 75c | 170.76$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 18c | 169.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…0b94backed Yes | 16c | 159.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…237cbacked No | 64c | 158.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed No | 77c | 158.58$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 156$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…1502backed Yes | 32c | 152.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 150.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…7c03backed No | 74c | 150.01$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 69c | 144.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4e…d7fbbacked Yes | 35c | 141.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…c3b4backed Yes | 37c | 138.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 20c | 138$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 15c | 135.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 80c | 131.7$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47d7…a977backed Yes | 22c | 128$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 5°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 7°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.