Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e2729ba4929c43eac21e7018af35a836bb269d90c90ca84379b40f8fbe00ebf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,725 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec5d…11d5backed Yes | 0c | 17,539$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…03b5backed Yes | 1c | 3,534$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,507$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…62b6backed Yes | 8c | 3,026$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.09 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…5476backed Yes | 1c | 2,075$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 12c | 1,901$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.75 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,881$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 1c | 1,769$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…293fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,554$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 12c | 1,525$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.34 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,209$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.26 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…a924backed Yes | 17c | 1,055$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 1,041$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 16c | 883.74$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 873.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 4c | 849.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…7888backed Yes | 18c | 680.38$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 16c | 667.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 9c | 642$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f9…f3e8backed Yes | 14c | 558.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…f497backed Yes | 5c | 470.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Yes | 40c | 467.49$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 13c | 460.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 6c | 458.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 14c | 453.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 15c | 435.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 7c | 432.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3d…38a2backed Yes | 16c | 425.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 8c | 371.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 12c | 355.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…af28backed Yes | 18c | 351.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 16c | 349.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 348.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…ec9cbacked Yes | 15c | 314.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…158ebacked Yes | 6c | 309.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 21c | 300$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 9c | 292.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 15c | 261.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…b6a9backed Yes | 8c | 253.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…2aedbacked Yes | 24c | 247.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 44c | 243.08$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 5c | 239.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…0c26backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 17c | 220$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 74c | 212.64$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…7c03backed Yes | 18c | 201.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…2c34backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63eb…b247backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…9fa6backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 78c | 196.08$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 9c | 180.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 9c | 175.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…aa26backed Yes | 20c | 173.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Yes | 38c | 166.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…7440backed Yes | 10c | 163.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 16c | 161.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 9c | 156$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e95…74c2backed Yes | 14c | 154.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 7c | 152.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3436…4ff0backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d82…89a3backed Yes | 8c | 143$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 15c | 132.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 12c | 124.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0512…d737backed Yes | 18c | 124.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…94b3backed Yes | 12c | 120.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes | 16c | 117.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8350…8efebacked Yes | 16c | 112$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 12c | 108$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 11c | 107.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e56…b109backed Yes | 15c | 106.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…ce00backed Yes | 24c | 105.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 12c | 104.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 14c | 102.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 18c | 100.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cef…51e1backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…e34bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…8171backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab1…c560backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2a…b49ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e11…481fbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb60…1938backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…443cbacked Yes | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 14c | 83.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 77c | 81.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 14c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 15c | 77.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 65c | 76.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…7a6bbacked No | 75c | 74.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…c00fbacked Yes | 17c | 73.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79aa…2e5cbacked Yes | 33c | 67.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2efa…cb31backed Yes | 22c | 61.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac32…e000backed Yes | 18c | 60.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked No | 77c | 57.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 64c | 52.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 26c | 49.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x53fe…5b95backed Yes | 22c | 45.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 5°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 7°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.