Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x907d74a66dfd21f04f660f347f9645731afad78b948d4fead12d50bbf8341f7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e91…134ebacked Yes | 40c | 27,000$10,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,200 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc6…e280backed No | 60c | 27,000$16,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,200 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 693.34$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.77 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 23c | 665.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 329.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 70c | 268.33$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 75c | 250.54$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.27 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 24c | 213.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.62 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 75c | 184.43$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.54 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 181.11$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 22c | 173.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.1 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…4a2dbacked Yes | 55c | 170$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…9dbabacked Yes | 15c | 160.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.82 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b2…6338backed No | 14c | 136.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 135.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 38c | 135.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 29c | 101.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 31c | 100.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…77bebacked Yes | 51c | 97.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0b…e325backed Yes | 47c | 86.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 25c | 80.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb912…ee20backed Yes | 23c | 78.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 76.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked Yes | 49c | 75.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 39c | 73.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 27c | 59.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…6223backed Yes | 24c | 58.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 55.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 55.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 21c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 26c | 50.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 53c | 43.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…958bbacked Yes | 79c | 43.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x934e…a5b1backed No | 67c | 41.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cd…0b02backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…4a80backed Yes | 51c | 38.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2850…a9d6backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9326…1684backed Yes | 70c | 34.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 49c | 32.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a3…320abacked Yes | 74c | 31.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 60c | 24.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 53c | 19.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5002…23dbbacked No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0f…b525backed No | 71c | 15.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 36°F or higher on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 22-23°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.