Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8993677f97d42f1992142f98877fa724e115f99c2711857deb12298fff0cf35f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 16c | 412.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 19c | 370$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 9c | 245.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 17c | 211.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 24c | 207.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…f29dbacked Yes | 7c | 202.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…6296backed Yes | 8c | 190.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 154.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 28c | 142.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 17c | 123.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e5…a381backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 74c | 74.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 79c | 72.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbe…39b6backed Yes | 28c | 70.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…9d96backed Yes | 34c | 67.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 74c | 67.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 36c | 60.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 59.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…c73cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…76d4backed No | 69c | 43.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 42.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…997ebacked Yes | 32c | 30.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 71c | 18.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 36°F or higher on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 22-23°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on February 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.