Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b5a63dbb800a84624dd40c0517822168cde495f65ca4221ddc9decb7690f128
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85fe…7446backed Yes | 5c | 1,114$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 21c | 168.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed No | 73c | 155.41$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 120.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 41c | 110.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 63c | 107.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked Yes | 33c | 106.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 26c | 91.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 88.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 44c | 79.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…76f0backed Yes | 21c | 78.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 80c | 74.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 71.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 28c | 60.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…2f7dbacked Yes | 31c | 51.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbe…39b6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 73c | 41.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 64c | 39.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…7d0dbacked Yes | 42c | 37.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…f29dbacked Yes | 43c | 35.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x47c0…7982backed Yes | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 33.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…55eebacked Yes | 45c | 32.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 61c | 31.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed Yes | 45c | 28.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 48c | 27.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 39c | 27.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 24.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…fac1backed No | 76c | 24.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed No | 51c | 22.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 61c | 20.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…76d4backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…4a80backed No | 71c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 36°F or higher on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 22-23°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on February 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.