Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76acb138ea838a3f9cae9bb3f1f9a023d32f469e8ef285f33cfdd6f787d8883b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e91…134ebacked Yes | 42c | 38,500$16,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,170 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed No | 58c | 38,500$22,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,170 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…dec2backed No | 57c | 31,500$17,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,545 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…6536backed Yes | 43c | 31,500$13,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,545 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…7141backed Yes | 42c | 10,156$4,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,265.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…8839backed No | 58c | 6,958$4,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,922.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd59e…87fabacked No | 58c | 6,524$3,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,740.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad0…9d26backed Yes | 42c | 4,394$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 3,186$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…7095backed Yes | 3c | 2,202$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 3c | 1,171$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 64c | 1,094$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.86 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4227…0e8cbacked No | 58c | 1,068$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…708bbacked Yes | 2c | 926.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f4…56b1backed Yes | 3c | 675.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 64c | 622.64$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.19 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 38c | 539.65$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.98 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 514.12$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 506.32$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.32 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 27c | 478.81$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 65c | 434.27$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.98 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed No | 70c | 426.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.05 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 19c | 354.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 35c | 343.7$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.86 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 31c | 322.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 49c | 300$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.78 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 55c | 295.69$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.14 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 264.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…5b94backed No | 63c | 241.69$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed No | 55c | 212.79$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 210.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 209.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 209.77$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes | 36c | 204.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 41c | 198.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 54c | 193.1$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.36 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed No | 60c | 167.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 64c | 163.52$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 24c | 157.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 154.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 154.95$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 34c | 149.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 14c | 147.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 80c | 146.8$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 143.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 78c | 114.03$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 14c | 113.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…204dbacked No | 63c | 110.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 109.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 105.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 57c | 98.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 63c | 95.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 20c | 94.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 28c | 90.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04f…5822backed No | 78c | 82.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18b…9996backed Yes | 50c | 81.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 26c | 81.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 61c | 81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 58c | 80.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 80.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e1…617bbacked Yes | 25c | 78.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 14c | 77.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 22c | 73.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 60c | 71.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 66c | 71.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 62.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 77c | 60.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18df…faa1backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1659…cda7backed Yes | 43c | 58.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 73c | 56.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 51c | 54.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 59c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 77c | 52.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…149fbacked No | 74c | 50.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 63c | 50.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 40c | 49.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…503abacked Yes | 40c | 49.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 59c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 55c | 44.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 69c | 42.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 65c | 42.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 59c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d9…c748backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…8bb7backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 51c | 39.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 66c | 37.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked No | 72c | 37.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 35.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed No | 78c | 34.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c19…8c38backed No | 79c | 34.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.