Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3156223e60c6571ee2df9e3c7815ddeb74b05bc265b9ed29387958371682f85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,966 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd0b…6c40backed Yes | 7c | 557.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 11c | 520.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 26c | 448.16$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 5c | 437.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 6c | 328.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 16c | 279.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 8c | 275.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 11c | 231.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 222.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed Yes | 22c | 214.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 204.06$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 23c | 197.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 8c | 186.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db4…3a77backed Yes | 11c | 175.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 7c | 173.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 164.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 20c | 148.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 119.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbf…9047backed Yes | 9c | 115.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb150…e198backed Yes | 11c | 109.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…bfc8backed Yes | 13c | 108$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed Yes | 14c | 101$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 98.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 26c | 97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e9…eff8backed Yes | 12c | 93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 18c | 87.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24b…6f2bbacked Yes | 15c | 87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 13c | 87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 84.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 15c | 81.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd8…931abacked Yes | 23c | 79.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb43…2a6bbacked Yes | 19c | 77.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 18c | 66.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 16c | 66.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed No | 80c | 51.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed No | 73c | 40.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 73c | 34.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 74c | 27.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…5d51backed No | 75c | 18.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.